NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/07/2025

The Celtics are in a perfect bounce-back spot after dropping Game 1 at home – teams that lose as 7+ point home favorites in Game 1 of playoff series are an impressive 30-5 straight up and nearly 64% ATS in Game 2 over the past 20 years.

Boston shot an abysmal 35% from the field and missed 45 threes in Game 1, wasting a 20-point second-half lead – numbers that are extreme outliers for the league's most efficient offense.

The Celtics are 20-2 SU and 18-4 ATS following a loss this season, displaying remarkable resilience and an ability to make effective adjustments.

New York needed arguably OG Anunoby's best playoff performance ever and numerous difficult shots from Jalen Brunson down the stretch just to erase that 20-point deficit and steal the win in overtime.

Boston will likely focus on getting more paint touches to create better looks from beyond the arc, leading to a more balanced offensive attack that should overwhelm New York's middling defense.

The Knicks displayed remarkable resilience in Game 1, erasing a 20-point deficit and putting the top-seeded Celtics on their heels with an impressive defensive effort that held Boston to just 16 points in the fourth quarter.

While Boston is expected to bounce back, the spread appears inflated for a playoff game between two quality opponents – particularly with the Knicks demonstrating they can compete at this level.

New York's defensive tandem of OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges proved effective against Boston's stars, and Jalen Brunson (29 points in Game 1) continues to elevate his game in crucial moments.

The Celtics struggled mightily with shot selection in Game 1, attempting 60 three-pointers with minimal success (25%), and this tendency to settle for outside shots could persist against the Knicks' physical defense.

The road team has covered in each of the Knicks' last four games, and while Boston will likely win to even the series, New York's defensive intensity and playoff experience should keep them within single digits.

The Nuggets have shown impressive resilience this postseason, already stealing Game 1 on the road against the heavily favored Thunder.

Oklahoma City has been a covering machine all season (57-27-4 ATS), but Denver has excelled as a heavy underdog, going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as double-digit dogs with four outright wins.

While the Thunder haven't lost back-to-back games since November with just four home losses since late January, Denver's championship experience is proving valuable in the playoffs.

Nikola Jokic continues to dominate (26.3 PPG, 12.9 RPG) while getting strong support from Jamal Murray (22.6 PPG) and Aaron Gordon, who's stepped up his scoring in the postseason.

The Thunder may bounce back, but this spread is simply too generous for a veteran Nuggets team that's playing well together and finding ways to win even when the odds suggest they shouldn't.

These teams have consistently produced high-scoring affairs, with three of their four regular season matchups generating at least 230 points – including totals of 246 and a remarkable 267.

Game 1 produced 240 total points despite neither team shooting particularly well, suggesting there's even more scoring potential when both offenses find their rhythm.

Jamal Murray is fully healthy after missing time in March/April and has scored 21+ points in six of eight playoff games, while Nikola Jokic continues his MVP-caliber play.

The Thunder have been an offensive juggernaut, averaging 119.8 PPG this season and putting up 120 PPG in their first-round sweep of Memphis.

With Aaron Gordon providing consistent scoring as Denver's third option and both teams possessing multiple efficient scorers, this total of 230 appears slightly too low based on their recent history.