The Denver Nuggets surprised the Oklahoma City Thunder with a narrow 121-119 victory in Game 1, thanks to Aaron Gordon's clutch three-pointer with just 2.8 seconds remaining, stealing home-court advantage in their Western Conference Semifinal series.
With Nikola Jokić dominating to the tune of 42 points and 22 rebounds, Denver exposed OKC's rebounding weakness, outrebounding the Thunder 63-43 despite committing 18 turnovers.
The Thunder, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's near triple-double (33 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists), now face a must-win Game 2 at home to avoid heading to Denver in an 0-2 hole.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets prediction: who will win?
For today's Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 79.67% chance of defeating the Nuggets.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 79.67% win probability
- League-leading 68 wins (68-14 record shows clear dominance)
- Stellar defensive efficiency (allowed just 8,826 points, fewest in the conference)
- Exceptional recent form (WWWWL, winning 4 of their last 5 games)
Denver Nuggets: 20.33% win probability
- Defensive inconsistency (allowed 9,583 points, over 750 more than OKC)
- Poor recent form (WWWLL, dropping their last two games)
- Road performance concerns (50-32 overall but struggling against elite teams)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets odds
Here are the latest odds as the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Denver Nuggets in NBA action on Wednesday, May 07.
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Denver Nuggets | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -510 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | +425 (via bet365 US) |
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets preview
Aaron Gordon's clutch three-pointer with 2.8 seconds left stunned the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1, giving Denver a shocking 121-119 road victory and stealing home-court advantage in this Western Conference semifinal showdown.
The Nuggets rode another masterclass from Nikola Jokic, who demolished the Thunder with 42 points and 22 rebounds, while completely dominating the glass with a staggering 63-43 rebounding advantage.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander nearly delivered a triple-double with 33 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists for Oklahoma City, but his supporting cast struggled from the field, shooting just 42% overall despite forcing 18 Denver turnovers.
The Thunder, who entered the series with the second-best scoring margin in the playoffs after sweeping Memphis, now face a critical Game 2 where they'll need to address their rebounding woes and capitalize on their league-leading defense to avoid falling into a dangerous 0-2 hole before the series shifts to Denver.
Mark Daigneault's squad will likely emphasize controlling the glass and finding more efficient shooting opportunities, while the Nuggets look to build on their offensive momentum after averaging 120.5 points in their last two playoff contests.
Key stats
- 1Thunder lead the Western Conference with a dominant 68-14 record, the best in the NBA
- 2Denver sits 4th in the West with a 50-32 record but has struggled recently with a 2-3 form in their last 5 games
- 3OKC boasts the best defense in the West, allowing just 8,826 points across 82 games
- 4The Nuggets score more than the Thunder (9,902 vs 9,881 total points) but have a significantly weaker point differential (+319 vs +1,055)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets form
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets head to head
Oklahoma City Thunder
17%
Denver Nuggets
83%
May 6, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
119 : 121
Denver Nuggets
Mar 11, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
127 : 140
Denver Nuggets
Mar 9, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
127 : 103
Denver Nuggets
Nov 7, 2024
Denver Nuggets
124 : 122
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oct 25, 2024
Denver Nuggets
87 : 102
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oct 16, 2024
Denver Nuggets
94 : 124
Oklahoma City Thunder
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