NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/08/2025

The Warriors-Timberwolves series has been defined by defensive play so far, with Minnesota scoring just 88 points in Game 1 – their second-lowest total all season.

The absence of Steph Curry with a hamstring injury significantly impacts Golden State's offensive firepower, as he's their primary scorer and playmaker who creates opportunities for teammates.

Minnesota's three-point shooting has gone ice cold recently, making just 12 of 76 attempts over their last two games, including Anthony Edwards shooting a miserable 1-for-16 from deep during this stretch.

The Under has cashed in 9 of Minnesota's last 12 games, showing a clear pattern of defensive success and offensive struggles for the Timberwolves.

Road Unders have been particularly profitable with Golden State, hitting in 5 of their last 6 away games – a trend that should continue with their offensive limitations without Curry.

While Steph Curry's absence hurts the Warriors significantly, this massive 10.5-point spread represents the first time Golden State has been a double-digit playoff underdog since 2007.

The Warriors have proven their resilience this season with a 7-5 straight-up record in games without Curry, showing they can still compete at a high level despite missing their superstar.

Minnesota has been shaky as a heavy favorite, failing to cover the spread in five of their last nine games when favored by double-digits, with two of those games resulting in outright losses.

Golden State brings championship experience that can't be discounted, with veterans like Jimmy Butler capable of elevating their game in crucial playoff moments.

Road teams and underdogs have been covering at an impressive rate in the second round of the playoffs, making this large spread particularly attractive for the battle-tested Warriors.

The Timberwolves find themselves in a must-win situation at home after dropping Game 1, and they've been nearly unbeatable at Target Center recently, not losing a home game since March 19.

Minnesota has demonstrated impressive bounce-back ability, not losing consecutive games since mid-March (March 17-19), highlighting their resilience and ability to make adjustments.

The Warriors losing Steph Curry to a hamstring injury creates a massive offensive void – he's averaging 22.6 points and 5.1 assists in the playoffs and commands constant defensive attention.

Minnesota's defense ranks among the NBA's elite, and they should have an easier time focusing their defensive scheme without having to account for Curry's perimeter threat.

The Timberwolves have won 21 of their last 27 games dating back to March 2, showing they've been one of the league's most consistent teams down the stretch and into the playoffs.