The Golden State Warriors look to take a commanding 2-0 series lead when they visit the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center on Thursday night in Game 2 of the Western Conference Semifinals, but they'll have to do it without Stephen Curry who's sidelined with a hamstring strain.
Despite being 11-point underdogs, Golden State carries momentum after their surprising 99-88 Game 1 victory where they dominated from beyond the arc, hitting 18 three-pointers compared to Minnesota's dismal 5-of-29 shooting from deep.
The Timberwolves, who haven't lost consecutive home games since mid-March, will lean heavily on Anthony Edwards to deliver a bounce-back performance and prevent falling into a deep playoff hole.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors matchup, our predictive model gives the Warriors a 53.67% chance of defeating the Wolves.
Pre-game probabilities
Golden State Warriors
Moneyline
Win %
53.67%
46.33%
Minnesota Timberwolves
Golden State Warriors: 53.67% win probability
- Superior scoring output (9331 points scored vs Minnesota's 9372, ranking 7th in the West)
- Stronger defensive efficiency (9060 points allowed compared to Minnesota's 8962, despite having more total wins)
- Better overall consistency with similar record (48-34) despite playing in a more competitive division
Minnesota Timberwolves: 46.33% win probability
- Recent inconsistency (WWWLW form showing vulnerability in close games)
- Home court advantage hasn't translated to dominant results (49-33 overall record with mixed home performances)
- Offensive limitations (9372 points scored, which is solid but not elite compared to top Western teams like Denver's 9902)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Golden State Warriors | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors preview
The Warriors stunned the Timberwolves 99-88 in Game 1 despite shooting just 39.1% from the field, leaning heavily on an impressive 18-for-42 performance from beyond the arc while Minnesota ice-cold at 5-for-29 from deep.
With Stephen Curry sidelined by a hamstring strain that will keep him out at least a week, veteran Buddy Hield stepped up with 24 points and 8 rebounds to lead Golden State to their ninth win in eleven road games.
Minnesota, who hadn't lost at home since March 19 and were 21-4 since March 2 before the series opener, will need Anthony Edwards (23 points, 14 rebounds in Game 1) to find his shooting touch after going just 9-for-22 in the opener.
The Timberwolves enter as heavy 10.5-point favorites for Thursday's Game 2 at Target Center, a spread that reflects both Curry's absence and Minnesota's stellar 8-1 home playoff record against Pacific Division teams following a loss.
Golden State has thrived as underdogs throughout the playoffs, winning 18 of their last 19 postseason contests against Northwest Division opponents after a victory, with Jimmy Butler capable of elevating his game when it matters most.
The Warriors, who haven't been double-digit playoff underdogs since 2007, will look to take a commanding 2-0 lead back to San Francisco, while Minnesota desperately needs to avoid consecutive playoff losses for the first time since mid-March.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors form
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors head to head
Minnesota Timberwolves
17%
Golden State Warriors
83%
May 7, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
88 : 99
Golden State Warriors
Jan 16, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
115 : 116
Golden State Warriors
Dec 22, 2024
Minnesota Timberwolves
103 : 113
Golden State Warriors
Dec 9, 2024
Golden State Warriors
114 : 106
Minnesota Timberwolves
Dec 7, 2024
Golden State Warriors
90 : 107
Minnesota Timberwolves
Mar 24, 2024
Minnesota Timberwolves
114 : 110
Golden State Warriors
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