The NHL playoff action heats up tonight with two crucial Game 3 matchups that offer surprising betting value for sharp players.
Our model identifies the Maple Leafs as significantly undervalued at +195 moneyline odds against Florida, despite the Panthers holding a 2-0 series lead and home-ice advantage.
Tonight's slate also features a compelling Jets-Stars showdown where defensive prowess could make the Under 5.5 the smartest play on the board.
NHL best bets
Game | Time | Pick |
---|---|---|
![]() ![]() | 7:00 PM | Maple Leafs +1.5 (-132)|Maple Leafs ML (+195)|Over 5.5 (-110) |
![]() ![]() | 9:30 PM | Jets ML (-110)|Under 5.5 (-115) |
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs

Friday, May 9
7:00 PM
Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL

The Maple Leafs have shown they can hang with the Panthers despite Florida playing with desperation down 2-0 in the series.
Toronto goaltender Woll is finding his rhythm, improving as Game 2 progressed despite coming off a three-week absence.
Bobrovsky has struggled significantly for Florida, posting just an .820 save percentage while allowing nine goals on 50 shots in the opening two games.
Multiple expert sources give this puck line bet a strong edge, with one model showing a 61.4% probability and 4.5% value edge at current odds.
The Panthers may prevail at home, but Toronto's undervalued position makes the +1.5 puck line a solid play with multiple endorsements across expert sources.
Toronto has seized a commanding 2-0 series lead heading into Florida, showing they can outperform the Panthers despite being underdogs.
Florida's goaltending issues with Bobrovsky continue to be a major concern, as he's allowed nine goals on just 50 shots in the series for an unacceptable .820 save percentage.
The Panthers will feel pressure playing from behind at home, which could create tight gripping as the game progresses if Toronto stays competitive.
Multiple expert sources recommend sprinkling on the Maple Leafs moneyline, with one model showing nearly a 5% edge at the current +195 price.
While it's always difficult to win three straight in the playoffs, the substantial underdog price offers tremendous value given Toronto's recent form and Florida's goaltending struggles.
Both games in this series have gone over the total, with Game 1 featuring nine goals and Game 2 clearing the over with time to spare.
Florida's offensive urgency will be at maximum levels as they face a must-win situation down 2-0 in the series on home ice.
The Panthers showed consistent scoring against Tampa Bay in the previous round, going over in four of five games and scoring at least four goals in three of those contests.
Goaltending has been suspect, particularly from Florida's Bobrovsky who has surrendered nine goals on just 50 shots for an .820 save percentage.
With Florida pushing the pace and Toronto having the offensive weapons to respond, this matchup has all the ingredients to deliver another high-scoring affair.
Jets vs. Stars

Friday, May 9
9:30 PM
Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg, MB

Winnipeg should benefit significantly from home ice advantage as they look to even the series after dropping Game 1.
The Jets' offensive weapons, including Kyle Connor and Mason Appleton, are due for a breakthrough after being limited to just two goals in the opener.
Winnipeg's defense anchored by Neal Pionk and Dylan Samberg should tighten up and create more turnovers in the defensive zone against Dallas.
Connor Hellebuyck remains one of the NHL's elite goaltenders and typically responds well after allowing goals in previous games.
The Jets are positioned to capitalize on the Stars' fatigue in Game 2, making the home team moneyline an attractive play at near even odds.
Game 1 between these teams demonstrated the defensive strength of both squads, suggesting another tight-checking affair is likely.
Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger has been in excellent form, with the Stars' defense limiting quality chances through strong play from Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell.
The Jets' defensive corps featuring Neal Pionk, Dylan Samberg, and Dylan DeMelo has shown they can neutralize Dallas, blanking the Stars in both the first and third periods of Game 1.
With Hellebuyck between the pipes for Winnipeg and Oettinger for Dallas, this matchup features two of the league's premier goaltenders who can steal games.
Playoff intensity typically tightens up games as series progress, with both teams making defensive adjustments after studying Game 1 video.
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