The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets clash Friday night at Ball Arena with their Western Conference Semifinal series tied 1-1 following OKC's dominant 149-106 blowout in Game 2.
The Thunder, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's efficient 34-point performance, look to carry their momentum into Denver where they've historically struggled in playoff matchups against Northwest Division opponents.
The defending champion Nuggets will need Nikola Jokic to bounce back from his subpar 17-point effort and hope their impressive 14-3 home playoff record provides the advantage as they aim to reclaim series control.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 66.25% chance of defeating the Nuggets.
Pre-game probabilities
Oklahoma City Thunder
Moneyline
Win %
66.25%
33.75%
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder: 66.25% win probability
- League-leading 68-14 record (Best overall record in the Western Conference)
- Elite defensive efficiency (8826 points allowed, fewest in the Western Conference)
- Dominant recent form (4-1 in last five games with a WWWWL record)
Denver Nuggets: 33.75% win probability
- Defensive vulnerability (9583 points allowed, 4th most in the Western Conference)
- Inconsistent recent performance (3-2 in last five games with a WWWLL record)
- Home court advantage hasn't translated to elite status (50-32 overall record ranks 4th in the West despite playing at altitude)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Denver Nuggets | Oklahoma City Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview
The Western Conference semifinal series shifts to Denver with the Thunder and Nuggets deadlocked at 1-1 following two drastically different games in Oklahoma City.
After the Nuggets stole home-court advantage with a nail-biting 121-119 victory in Game 1, the Thunder responded with historic offensive firepower in Game 2, pouring in an NBA playoff-record 87 first-half points en route to a 149-106 demolition.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was nearly perfect in the Thunder's bounce-back win, shooting a blistering 11-of-13 from the field while adding 8 assists in just three quarters of action.
Denver's Nikola Jokic, who dominated with 44 points in the opener, managed just 17 points before fouling out in the third quarter of Game 2 — a microcosm of the Nuggets' struggles as they committed 21 turnovers and shot just 38 percent.
The series now hinges on whether the defending champion Nuggets can recapture their form at Ball Arena, where they've won 14 of their last 19 playoff games, or if the top-seeded Thunder can maintain their momentum on the road, where they've incredibly lost just twice since February.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder form
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder head to head
Denver Nuggets
67%
Oklahoma City Thunder
33%
May 8, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
149 : 106
Denver Nuggets
May 6, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
119 : 121
Denver Nuggets
Mar 11, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
127 : 140
Denver Nuggets
Mar 9, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
127 : 103
Denver Nuggets
Nov 7, 2024
Denver Nuggets
124 : 122
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oct 25, 2024
Denver Nuggets
87 : 102
Oklahoma City Thunder
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