The Indiana Pacers look to complete a stunning Eastern Conference Semifinals upset as they host the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3 with a commanding 2-0 series lead.
Tyrese Haliburton's buzzer-beater heroics in Game 2 capped a dramatic 8-0 run in the final minute, sending the top-seeded Cavaliers into must-win territory at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
With Cleveland potentially missing key players Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and De'Andre Hunter for a third straight game, Indiana has a golden opportunity to push the East's best regular-season team to the brink of elimination.
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers matchup, our predictive model gives the Cavs a 55.75% chance of defeating the Pacers.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 55.75% win probability
- Elite win-loss record (64-18, best in Eastern Conference)
- Superior defensive efficiency (9217 points allowed, 3rd best in the East)
- Strong offensive production (9999 points scored, highest in the league)
Indiana Pacers: 44.25% win probability
- Defensive vulnerability (9441 points allowed, 8th in Eastern Conference)
- Significantly fewer wins than Cleveland (50 vs 64)
- Inconsistent performance against top teams (4th in East but 14 wins behind conference leaders)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers odds
Here are the latest odds for the NBA matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Indiana Pacers, who will host at home on Friday, May 09.
| Indiana Pacers | Cleveland Cavaliers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +135 (via Caesars Sportsbook) | -142 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) |
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Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers preview
The Cleveland Cavaliers find themselves in unfamiliar territory as they head to Gainbridge Fieldhouse down 0-2 in their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Indiana Pacers, who have shocked the top-seeded Cavs with back-to-back road upsets.
Game 2 delivered a particularly devastating blow for Cleveland when Tyrese Haliburton's buzzer-beating three-pointer capped an 8-0 Pacers run in the final minute, erasing what had been a commanding 20-point Cavaliers lead earlier in the contest.
Donovan Mitchell has been spectacular for Cleveland with 48 points in Game 2, but the potential absences of Evan Mobley, De'Andre Hunter, and Darius Garland could again loom large for a Cavs team that ranked first in offensive rating during the regular season.
The Pacers, who have now won seven of their last ten meetings with Cleveland, continue to thrive with balanced scoring—six players reached double figures in Game 2—while their sixth-ranked pace has helped push both games over the total.
Indiana's home crowd should provide additional energy for a Pacers team that has surprisingly controlled this series despite Cleveland's regular-season dominance (64-18).
With their season essentially on the line, the Cavaliers must find answers to slow down the Pacers' efficient offense (51.8% shooting in Game 2) while hoping for positive injury news ahead of this pivotal Game 3 showdown.
Key stats
- 1Cleveland sits atop the Eastern Conference with a 64-18 record, making them clear favorites at home
- 2Indiana holds the 4th position in the East with a 50-32 record, establishing them as a legitimate playoff contender
- 3The Pacers have won 4 of their last 5 games (WLWWW), showing strong recent form
- 4The Cavaliers have been inconsistent lately with a LWLWL pattern in their last five games despite their dominant overall record
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers form
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers head to head
Indiana Pacers
80%
Cleveland Cavaliers
20%
May 9, 2025
Indiana Pacers
0 : 0
Cleveland Cavaliers
May 6, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
119 : 120
Indiana Pacers
May 4, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
112 : 121
Indiana Pacers
Apr 13, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
118 : 126
Indiana Pacers
Apr 10, 2025
Indiana Pacers
114 : 112
Cleveland Cavaliers
Jan 15, 2025
Indiana Pacers
117 : 127
Cleveland Cavaliers
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