The Toronto Maple Leafs look to build on their momentum after taking a shocking 2-0 series lead over the heavily favored Florida Panthers, with Game 3 shifting to Amerant Bank Arena tonight.
Despite being +195 underdogs, the Leafs have found ways to capitalize on their opportunities, converting at a 24.77% clip on the power play while goaltender Anthony Stolarz continues to frustrate Panther shooters.
Florida (-230) now faces enormous pressure to defend home ice and avoid a potentially insurmountable 3-0 deficit in this Eastern Conference Semifinal showdown.
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 54.5% chance of defeating the Panthers.
Toronto Maple Leafs: 54.5% win probability
- League-leading offense (268 goals scored, ranking 2nd in Eastern Conference)
- Elite recent form (WWWWW in last five games showing peak performance)
- Superior season record (52 wins compared to Panthers' 47, demonstrating consistency)
Florida Panthers: 45.5% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performance (LLWWW indicating volatility)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (223 goals against compared to Leafs' 231 despite fewer points)
- Lower points total (98 points vs. Toronto's 108, suggesting weaker overall season performance)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs odds
Here are the latest odds as the Florida Panthers host the Toronto Maple Leafs in NHL action on Friday, May 09.
| Florida Panthers | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -230 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) | +196 (via Caesars Sportsbook) |
Best NHL sportsbook promos
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs preview
The Toronto Maple Leafs head into Amerant Bank Arena with momentum on their side after seizing a commanding 2-0 series lead with their gritty 4-3 victory in Game 2 against the Panthers.
Florida finds itself in must-win territory on home ice, needing to solve Anthony Stolarz who has been stellar between the pipes with a .917 career save percentage.
The special teams battle could prove decisive, with Toronto converting at an impressive 24.77% on the power play this season while Florida's unit ranks 9th in the league.
Panthers' veteran netminder Sergei Bobrovsky will be looking to bounce back after surrendering four goals on just twenty shots in Game 2.
The Panthers' home crowd should provide a much-needed boost for a squad that generated 28 shots last outing but couldn't capitalize enough against a Maple Leafs defense that has been surprisingly stingy in this series.
Key stats
- 1The Maple Leafs sit 2nd in the Eastern Conference with 108 points from 82 games, showing exceptional consistency
- 2Toronto has the 2nd best offense in the East with 268 goals scored, trailing only Washington
- 3Florida ranks 5th in the Eastern Conference with 98 points, just 10 behind Toronto despite playing the same number of games
- 4The Panthers have won 3 of their last 5 games (LLWWW), while Toronto enters on a 5-game winning streak (WWWWW)
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs form
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs head to head
Florida Panthers
50%
Toronto Maple Leafs
50%
May 7, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
4 : 3
Florida Panthers
May 6, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
5 : 4
Florida Panthers
Apr 8, 2025
Florida Panthers
3 : 1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Apr 2, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 2
Florida Panthers
Mar 13, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
2 : 3
Florida Panthers
Nov 28, 2024
Florida Panthers
5 : 1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Betting on the NHL?
Sporting Post is your trusted guide for NHL betting. We offer expert NHL predictions, top NHL picks, and the latest NHL odds. Our analysis and real-time insights help you make smart, confident bets. Make sure to use the best sportsbooks, sports betting apps, and betting sites. We've reviewed and tested the best NHL betting sites here.
