NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 05/10/2025

The Capitals-Hurricanes series has been a defensive showcase with just 7 total goals scored across the first two games, and Game 3 in Raleigh sets up similarly.

Carolina's defensive structure has completely neutralized Washington's attack, most notably shutting down Alex Ovechkin who has zero points and only 4 shots on goal in the series.

Washington's goaltender Logan Thompson has been outstanding in the playoffs with a 2.01 GAA and .931 save percentage, allowing 2 or fewer goals in 6 of 7 postseason games.

Both teams have established their defensive identities in this series, with neither showing any indication they'll deviate from their tight-checking approaches.

With the series shifting to Raleigh where the Hurricanes typically play an even more structured game, expect another low-scoring affair as both teams prioritize defensive responsibility.

The Oilers enter this matchup riding significant momentum with six straight wins, while Vegas has stumbled recently, losing four of their last seven games.

Edmonton's offense has been explosive, particularly at home where they've poured in 17 goals across their last three games in front of their raucous crowd.

The Golden Knights' penalty kill ranks 26th in the league, creating a major vulnerability against an Oilers power play converting at over 23 percent efficiency.

Vegas has struggled defensively on the road, surrendering 10 goals in their last three away games - a troubling trend heading into Edmonton's fortress.

While the Golden Knights possess a dangerous power play (28% conversion rate), Edmonton's overall form and home-ice advantage give them the clear edge in this Western Conference showdown.

Advanced predictive analytics models run by Dimers give this under a 51.2% probability, creating value at the +110 odds available at BetMGM.

While Edmonton has been scoring at an impressive clip, Vegas typically tightens up defensively in playoff-style hockey, especially in crucial road games.

The Golden Knights' goaltending has been steady throughout the postseason, often keeping games under the total even when their offense struggles.

In playoff series, adjustments typically favor defensive improvements as teams become increasingly familiar with each other's offensive tendencies.

With an edge of 3.6% according to simulation models, the under represents solid value in what projects to be a tighter contest than recent Oilers games might suggest.