NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/11/2025

The Denver Nuggets find themselves as home underdogs again despite taking a 2-1 series lead over the Thunder with Friday's impressive overtime victory. This series has established a clear pattern with Denver winning two straight after dropping the opener, and they've covered in five of seven playoff games overall.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to struggle with efficiency against Denver's defensive scheme, shooting just 7-for-22 in Game 3 for 18 points. That's well below his season average, and the Thunder offense stalled completely in overtime, scoring just two points in the extra period.

Denver has lost just once in six home playoff games, and they've established their championship experience as a significant edge in this series. Even with Nikola Jokic shooting an uncharacteristic 8-for-25 from the field and 0-for-10 from three in Game 3, the Nuggets still found a way to win.

The Thunder now face immense pressure to avoid going down 3-1, which historically has been nearly impossible to overcome in the playoffs. This pressure could lead to tighter play from a young Thunder team still learning how to win in the postseason.

With the underdogs covering in each of the last six meetings between these teams at Ball Arena, and Denver consistently showing they can stay within this number even in losses, backing the Nuggets to cover is the smart play here. Don't expect another off night from Jokic, which makes this spread even more attractive.

Game 3 between the Thunder and Nuggets went to overtime and still only reached 217 total points, highlighting the defensive nature of this playoff series. With both teams now three games into adjusting to each other's tendencies, scoring efficiency typically decreases further as the series progresses.

Oklahoma City's offensive struggles have been notable, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander failing to find his typical rhythm. He shot just 7-for-22 in Game 3, while the Thunder as a team managed just 38% from the field and 9-for-35 (25.7%) from three-point range.

Nikola Jokic, despite his overall brilliance, has been inefficient offensively in this series as well. He shot 8-for-25 in Game 3 including 0-for-10 from beyond the arc. With both teams' superstars facing tough defensive schemes, points are coming at a premium.

The pressure of a pivotal Game 4 often leads to tighter, more deliberate play. Denver will likely slow the pace even further, leveraging their playoff experience and forcing Oklahoma City to execute in the halfcourt rather than allowing transition opportunities.

With the total set at 227, there's significant value on the under given the defensive intensity both teams have shown. Even if shooting percentages improve from Game 3's poor showing, the high-stakes nature of this game should keep the combined score below this number.

The Cavaliers responded emphatically in Game 3 with a dominant performance after falling behind 0-2 in the series. With their full roster now back and healthy, including Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and De'Andre Hunter, Cleveland's superior talent is beginning to show.

Donovan Mitchell continues his scoring barrage against a Pacers defense that has few answers for his offensive arsenal. More importantly, Cleveland's defense tightened up considerably in Game 3, limiting Indiana's transition opportunities and contesting shots at a much higher rate.

Tyrese Haliburton's wrist injury remains a significant concern for Indiana. As the engine of the Pacers' offense, his limited production (just 23 points and 9 assists combined over the last two games) severely hampers their ability to keep pace with the Cavaliers.

Cleveland finds itself in another must-win situation — teams that go down 3-1 in playoff series historically have little chance of advancing. With their season essentially on the line, expect the Cavaliers to show the same intensity and focus that propelled them to victory in Game 3.

The Cavs' momentum, coupled with Indiana's struggles to generate consistent offense with a hampered Haliburton, points to Cleveland not just winning but covering this modest spread. The early series deficit has awakened the more talented team, and Cleveland's veterans understand the importance of evening the series.