NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 05/11/2025

The Stars are back home after splitting the first two games in Winnipeg, where they'll look to take control of the series in Game 3.

Connor Hellebuyck has been Jekyll and Hyde this postseason, particularly on the road where he's posted an alarming 7.24 GAA and hasn't even finished all three away games in the first round.

Dallas brings a potent offense led by Mikko Rantanen, whose playoff performance has been nothing short of spectacular, and they'll be hungry to rebound after being shut out in Game 2.

Jake Oettinger has been solid between the pipes with a .910 save percentage in these playoffs, giving Dallas stability in net while Winnipeg deals with Hellebuyck's road struggles.

The Stars' offensive depth and home ice advantage should be the difference here, especially considering Winnipeg was throttled by a combined 17-5 score in their three road games against St. Louis last round.

While the series has featured relatively tight checking so far, both offenses have the firepower to break this game open.

The Stars have found their scoring touch recently with 17 goals across their last five games, and should be motivated to push the pace after being shut out in Game 2.

Winnipeg showed their offensive potential by putting four past Oettinger in the last game, with Ehlers and Vilardi creating quality chances through quick puck movement.

Both teams have shown they can create scoring opportunities off the rush, with Dallas particularly effective at generating chances through their quick transition game and offensive zone puck movement.

The Jets' defensive structure has been inconsistent on the road this postseason, and Dallas has the offensive weapons in Rantanen, Hintz, and Johnston to capitalize and push this game over the total.

The Maple Leafs present excellent value at +155 against the Panthers in tonight's matchup, with model projections giving Toronto a higher win probability than the odds suggest.

Advanced simulations indicate a 41.5% win probability for Toronto, which translates to a 2.3% edge at the current price—making this a positive expected value bet.

While Florida enters as the favorite, the odds have overcompensated for their home ice advantage, creating this market inefficiency that savvy bettors can exploit.

Toronto's offensive weapons remain dangerous even against Florida's strong defensive system, and the Leafs have shown they can compete with the Panthers in previous meetings.

At +155, we only need the Leafs to win about 39% of the time to break even, making this a mathematically sound betting opportunity in what should be a closely contested playoff battle.