The Denver Nuggets look to take commanding control of their Western Conference Semifinal series as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in a pivotal Game 4 matchup with the series at 2-1 in Denver's favor.
After a heartbreaking overtime loss in Game 3 where the Thunder offense collapsed completely in the extra period, OKC must find answers for a struggling Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who shot just 7-of-22 in their previous outing.
Despite entering as 6-point underdogs, the Nuggets have momentum on their side with Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. all stepping up while the Thunder need a bounce-back performance from beyond the arc where they shot just 25% last game.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 66% chance of defeating the Nuggets.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 66% win probability
- League-leading 68-14 record (Best overall record in the Western Conference)
- Defensive dominance (Allowed just 8826 points, fewest in the West)
- Exceptional recent form (4-1 in last five games with WWWWL record)
Denver Nuggets: 34% win probability
- Defensive inconsistency (Allowed 9583 points, 4th most among playoff teams in the West)
- Recent struggles (2-3 in last five games with WWWLL record)
- Scoring efficiency issues (50-32 record despite scoring the most points in the West at 9902)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder odds
Here are the latest odds for the NBA matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets, who will have home-court advantage when they face off on Sunday, May 11.
| Denver Nuggets | Oklahoma City Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +215 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | -245 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) |
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Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview
The Denver Nuggets seized control of their Western Conference semifinal series with a gutsy 113-104 overtime victory in Game 3, putting the top-seeded Thunder in a precarious 2-1 hole heading into Sunday's crucial matchup at Ball Arena.
Oklahoma City's offensive firepower stalled at the worst possible time, managing just two points in overtime after leading for much of the contest—a shocking development for a 68-win juggernaut that dominated the regular season.
While Jalen Williams delivered with 32 points for OKC, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander struggled uncharacteristically, missing 15 of 22 shots and failing to attempt a field goal in the extra period.
Denver's supporting cast stepped up magnificently around Nikola Jokic, with Jamal Murray (27 points), Aaron Gordon (22), and Michael Porter Jr. (21) all delivering when it mattered most.
The Thunder must rediscover their free throw touch (just 68% in Games 1 and 3) and perimeter shooting (25% in Game 3) to avoid falling into a daunting 3-1 deficit against the defending champions.
Sunday represents a potential season-defining moment for an Oklahoma City squad that was bounced in this same semifinal round last year—now facing either redemption or a repeat disappointment against a Nuggets team that knows exactly how to win playoff battles.
Key stats
- 1Thunder dominate the Western Conference as the #1 seed with a league-best 68-14 record
- 2Denver sits 4th in the West at 50-32, a full 18 games behind OKC
- 3Thunder enter with superior offensive production (9881 points scored vs Denver's 9902) and far better defense (8826 points allowed vs Denver's 9583)
- 4Recent form heavily favors OKC (WWWWL) over Denver (WWWLL)
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder form
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder head to head
Denver Nuggets
60%
Oklahoma City Thunder
40%
May 11, 2025
Denver Nuggets
0 : 0
Oklahoma City Thunder
May 10, 2025
Denver Nuggets
113 : 104
Oklahoma City Thunder
May 8, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
149 : 106
Denver Nuggets
May 6, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
119 : 121
Denver Nuggets
Mar 11, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
127 : 140
Denver Nuggets
Mar 9, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
127 : 103
Denver Nuggets
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