The Florida Panthers look to build on their momentum after Friday night's thrilling overtime victory as they host the Toronto Maple Leafs in a pivotal Game 4 of their Eastern Conference second-round playoff series.
With Toronto leading the series 2-1, the Panthers aim to even things up on home ice despite struggling defensively, having allowed 13 goals through the first three games.
Both teams have combined for 26 goals in this high-scoring series, with each contest surpassing the over and featuring dramatic momentum swings that suggest another tense battle at Amerant Bank Arena.
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 54.67% chance of defeating the Panthers.
Toronto Maple Leafs: 54.67% win probability
- Outstanding regular season record (52 wins, 2nd in Eastern Conference)
- Explosive offense (268 goals scored, 4th highest in their conference)
- Perfect recent form (WWWWW in last five games, showing peak performance heading into this matchup)
Florida Panthers: 45.33% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performances (LLWWW recent form showing vulnerability)
- Defensive struggles compared to Toronto (233 goals against vs Toronto's 231)
- Lower points total (98 points vs Toronto's 108, indicating a less consistent season overall)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs odds
Here are the latest odds as the Florida Panthers host the Toronto Maple Leafs in this crucial NHL matchup on Sunday, May 11.
| Florida Panthers | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -184 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | +160 (via bet365 US) |
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Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs preview
The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to rebound from their painful Game 3 overtime loss when they face the Florida Panthers in a pivotal Game 4 at Amerant Bank Arena on Sunday night.
After building a commanding 2-0 series lead, Toronto watched their cushion shrink when Brad Marchand delivered Florida's dramatic 5-4 overtime winner on Friday—keeping the Panthers' hopes alive after twice rallying from two-goal deficits.
Sergei Bobrovsky has been vulnerable throughout the series, surrendering 13 goals across three games, but made crucial stops when needed most in Game 3.
With Joseph Woll confirmed between the pipes for Toronto as Anthony Stolarz remains sidelined, both teams' defensive units face pressure after three straight high-scoring affairs that have easily cleared the over.
The bitter Atlantic Division rivals know each other all too well, with Florida having eliminated Toronto in the second round of the 2023 playoffs—adding another layer of intensity to this already heated matchup.
Key stats
- 1Toronto sits 2nd in the Eastern Conference with 108 points from 52 wins in 82 games
- 2Florida ranks 5th in the Eastern Conference with 98 points from 47 wins in 82 games
- 3The Maple Leafs are on a hot streak with a WWWWW recent form compared to Florida's LLWWW
- 4Toronto holds a significant offensive edge with 268 goals scored versus Florida's 252
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs form
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs head to head
Florida Panthers
50%
Toronto Maple Leafs
50%
May 9, 2025
Florida Panthers
5 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
May 7, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
4 : 3
Florida Panthers
May 6, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
5 : 4
Florida Panthers
Apr 8, 2025
Florida Panthers
3 : 1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Apr 2, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 2
Florida Panthers
Mar 13, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
2 : 3
Florida Panthers
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