NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 05/12/2025

The Capitals have been struggling offensively with just four goals across the first three games of the series, but they've remained competitive defensively, allowing only seven goals to the Hurricanes.

This puck line bet appears in multiple expert analyses, with Dimers giving it a 60.1% probability and a 2.6% edge, making it one of their recommended plays for today's slate.

While Carolina holds a 2-1 series lead after a dominant 4-0 win in Game 3, the physical nature of playoff hockey tends to keep games tight, especially with Washington's strong defensive unit led by Jakob Chychrun and John Carlson.

The Capitals have been outmatched by Carolina's depth, but they have enough playoff experience to make adjustments after being shut out, and should keep this within a goal.

Logan Thompson has been solid in net for Washington when tested, and we expect the Capitals to tighten up defensively with their season essentially on the line in this pivotal Game 4.

While the popular consensus leans heavily toward the Hurricanes at home, there's significant value on the Capitals as massive underdogs in what has been a competitive playoff series.

Dimers' model identifies this as their highest-edge NHL play today at +200 odds, assigning it a 36.9% win probability with a 3.6% edge over the market price.

Playoff hockey frequently produces surprising results, and Washington has the veteran leadership and playoff experience to potentially steal a road game despite Carolina's home-ice advantage.

The Capitals' offense is due for a breakthrough after being limited to just four goals in three games, as their talent level suggests they won't remain this cold throughout the entire series.

At +200, this presents a solid value opportunity in a scenario where Washington makes the necessary adjustments following their shutout loss in Game 3.

The Hurricanes have dominated the Capitals throughout much of this series, particularly in Game 3 where they cruised to a convincing 4-0 shutout on home ice.

Carolina's superior forward depth has been overwhelming Washington, with the Capitals managing just 4 goals total across the first three games (less than 1.33 per game).

Rod Brind'Amour's ability to dictate matchups at home has been a significant advantage for the Hurricanes, something that will continue to benefit them in Game 4.

The Hurricanes' defensive structure led by Jaccob Slavin and Dmitry Orlov has suffocated Washington's offense, with Frederik Andersen providing excellent goaltending when called upon.

With momentum fully on their side and playing in front of their home crowd, Carolina should take care of business in regulation time without needing overtime.

The Golden Knights vs Oilers under 6.5 goals stands out as Dimers' highest-edge play of the day at 5.9%, with their model giving it a 52.4% probability of hitting.

Playoff hockey traditionally tightens up as series progress, with defensive structure and goaltending taking center stage in critical games.

The plus-money price of +115 provides excellent value for a total that the analytical models suggest should be priced closer to even money.

While both teams feature talented offensive players, the defensive adjustments and intensity of playoff hockey often lead to lower-scoring affairs than expected.

The sportsbooks have likely set this total based on the offensive firepower of both teams, but the models indicate the market has overestimated the scoring potential for this matchup.