The Vegas Golden Knights are looking to even up their second-round Western Conference playoff series when they visit the Edmonton Oilers for Game 4 at Rogers Place on Monday night, with the Oilers currently leading 2-1.
After snapping Edmonton's six-game winning streak with a dramatic last-second Game 3 victory, the Golden Knights aim to build momentum behind Jack Eichel's playmaking while the Oilers will rely on Connor McDavid's playoff-leading 16 points to regain control.
With Edmonton averaging an impressive 4.33 goals per game this postseason while Vegas boasts the third-best regular season defense, this matchup sets up a classic battle between offensive firepower and defensive structure.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Edmonton Oilers vs Vegas Golden Knights matchup, our predictive model gives the Oilers a 62.67% chance of defeating the Knights.
Pre-game probabilities
Edmonton Oilers
Moneyline
Win %
62.67%
37.33%
Vegas Golden Knights
Edmonton Oilers: 62.67% win probability
- Explosive offense (277 goals scored, tied for 3rd best in Western Conference)
- Home ice advantage (48-29-5 overall record despite finishing 6th in conference)
- Strong momentum (WLWWW recent form showing 4 wins in last 5 games)
Vegas Golden Knights: 37.33% win probability
- Recent inconsistency (WLWWL form showing alternating wins and losses)
- Defensive vulnerability (219 goals against compared to Oilers' stronger defense)
- Road performance concerns (50-22-10 overall record but heading into hostile Edmonton arena)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Edmonton Oilers | Vegas Golden Knights | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights preview
The Golden Knights will look to even their Western Conference semifinal series tonight after Reilly Smith's last-second heroics kept their hopes alive in Game 3, snapping Edmonton's six-game playoff winning streak.
Connor McDavid continues his playoff dominance with 16 points (3 goals, 13 assists) while Edmonton's offense has been explosive, averaging 4.33 goals per game in the postseason—well above their regular season production.
Vegas will need another strong performance from Jack Eichel, who leads the Knights with 10 points this postseason, if they hope to solve Calvin Pickard, who remains unbeaten at 6-0 in these playoffs despite a modest .888 save percentage.
After surrendering home-ice advantage with losses in the first two games, Vegas found their defensive footing in Game 3 but still faces a challenge against an Oilers team that's converting on nearly 24% of their power play opportunities this season.
The series has followed the regular season pattern where Edmonton has held the edge, going 6-4 against Vegas in their last ten meetings, making tonight's clash at Rogers Place potentially pivotal as the Knights aim to avoid falling into a 3-1 hole.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights form
Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights head to head
Edmonton Oilers
67%
Vegas Golden Knights
33%
May 11, 2025
Edmonton Oilers
3 : 4
Vegas Golden Knights
May 9, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights
4 : 5
Edmonton Oilers
May 7, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights
2 : 4
Edmonton Oilers
Apr 2, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights
2 : 3
Edmonton Oilers
Dec 14, 2024
Edmonton Oilers
6 : 3
Vegas Golden Knights
Dec 4, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights
1 : 0
Edmonton Oilers
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