The Minnesota Timberwolves aim to seize a commanding 3-1 series lead when they face the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center on Monday night, riding the momentum of back-to-back victories and Anthony Edwards' explosive 36-point performance in Game 3.
With Steph Curry still sidelined by a hamstring injury, the Warriors will look to Jimmy Butler and Jonathan Kuminga to replicate their strong offensive showings while tightening up defensively after being outscored 25-15 down the stretch in their previous matchup.
This pivotal Western Conference Semifinal clash pits Minnesota's elite playoff defense (99.1 points allowed per game) against a desperate Warriors squad fighting to even the series despite missing their superstar floor general.
Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves matchup, our predictive model gives the Warriors a 57% chance of defeating the Wolves.
Golden State Warriors: 57% win probability
- Home court advantage (48-34 overall record compared to Timberwolves' 49-33)
- Superior offensive production (9331 points scored vs. Minnesota's 9372, despite fewer wins)
- Better recent consistency (3-2 in last 5 games compared to Minnesota's inconsistent performances)
Minnesota Timberwolves: 43% win probability
- Road game vulnerability (49-33 overall record, but historically weaker away from home)
- Defensive inconsistency (8962 points allowed, ranking middle of Western Conference)
- Troubling scoring efficiency (9372 points scored on the season, but often inefficient in key moments)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves odds
Here are the latest odds for the NBA matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Golden State Warriors, with the Warriors hosting at home on Monday, May 12.
| Golden State Warriors | Minnesota Timberwolves | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +188 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | -210 (via Caesars Sportsbook) |
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Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves preview
The Timberwolves look to tighten their grip on the Western Conference Semifinals as they enter Game 4 with a 2-1 series lead after Anthony Edwards' electrifying 36-point performance carried Minnesota to a crucial 102-97 road win in Game 3.
Golden State continues to battle valiantly without Stephen Curry, leaning on Jimmy Butler's 33-point effort and Jonathan Kuminga's breakout 30-point game off the bench in their last outing.
The Warriors' championship DNA will be put to the test as they face what amounts to a must-win situation at Chase Center, where they'll need Draymond Green to bounce back from a forgettable two-point, four-assist performance that ended with him fouling out.
Minnesota's defense has been suffocating throughout the playoffs, holding six of their last eight opponents under 100 points while Edwards and Julius Randle—fresh off becoming the first Timberwolf since Kevin Garnett to record a playoff triple-double—continue to power their offense.
With both teams ranking among the slowest-paced squads in the Western Conference playoffs, expect another defensive slugfest where every possession takes on magnified importance.
Key stats
- 1Minnesota Timberwolves (6th in West) have won 49 games while Golden State Warriors (7th in West) have won 48 games this season
- 2Timberwolves have a better recent form (WWWLW) compared to Warriors' inconsistent pattern (LWLWL)
- 3Golden State scored fewer points (9331) than Minnesota (9372) but allowed fewer points against (9060 vs 8962)
- 4Warriors' point differential (+271) is slightly better than the Timberwolves' (+410), despite being one position lower in standings
Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves form
Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves head to head
Golden State Warriors
100%
Minnesota Timberwolves
0%
May 11, 2025
Golden State Warriors
97 : 102
Minnesota Timberwolves
May 9, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
117 : 93
Golden State Warriors
May 7, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
88 : 99
Golden State Warriors
Jan 16, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
115 : 116
Golden State Warriors
Dec 22, 2024
Minnesota Timberwolves
103 : 113
Golden State Warriors
Dec 9, 2024
Golden State Warriors
114 : 106
Minnesota Timberwolves
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