The Edmonton Oilers stand one win away from advancing to the Western Conference finals as they head to T-Mobile Arena for a pivotal Game 5 showdown with the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday night.
After shutting out Vegas 3-0 in Game 4 to take a commanding 3-1 series lead, Connor McDavid and the red-hot Oilers offense will look to close out the series against a Golden Knights team fighting to keep their season alive.
The odds slightly favor the home team Golden Knights (-122) despite Edmonton's momentum and recent success at T-Mobile Arena, where they've won three straight road games.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Vegas Golden Knights vs Edmonton Oilers matchup, our predictive model gives the Oilers a 53.67% chance of defeating the Knights.
Edmonton Oilers: 53.67% win probability
- Offensive firepower (277 goals scored, tied for 3rd most in the Western Conference)
- Strong late-season form (WLWWW in recent games compared to Knights' WLWWL)
- Excellent road performance (helped secure 101 points despite being 6th in standings)
Vegas Golden Knights: 46.33% win probability
- Defensive inconsistency (219 goals against compared to Oilers' improving defense)
- Recent form concerns (WLWWL shows less consistency than Edmonton's pattern)
- Home ice advantage not translating to expected win probability (despite 2nd place standing in West)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers odds
Here are the current odds as the Vegas Golden Knights host the Edmonton Oilers in NHL action on Wednesday, May 14.
| Vegas Golden Knights | Edmonton Oilers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -122 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | +110 (via Caesars Sportsbook) |
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Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers preview
The Edmonton Oilers stand one win away from advancing to the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive season as they head to Vegas with a commanding 3-1 series lead after shutting out the Golden Knights 3-0 in Game 4.
Connor McDavid has been the catalyst for Edmonton's playoff surge, leading the team with 17 points (3G, 14A), while the Oilers' offense has shifted into high gear, averaging 4.20 goals per game in the postseason compared to their regular season mark of 3.16.
Vegas, despite home-ice advantage at T-Mobile Arena, finds itself in a precarious position having lost three of their last four home games, while the Oilers have won three straight road contests.
The Golden Knights' penalty kill will be under intense scrutiny after Edmonton has converted over 23 percent of their power play opportunities this postseason.
Golden Knights' Jack Eichel (10 points) and Mark Stone (questionable with upper body injury) will need to spark Vegas' offense that has cooled recently, scoring just nine goals in their last three home games.
For Edmonton, goaltender Stuart Skinner looks to build on the team's solid defensive road performance, where they've surrendered just seven goals in their last three away games.
Key stats
- 1Vegas sits 2nd in the Western Conference with 110 points compared to Edmonton's 6th place (101 points)
- 2The Golden Knights have scored 275 goals and allowed 219 for a +56 goal differential
- 3The Oilers have identical offensive output (277 goals) but weaker defense (236 goals against, +41 differential)
- 4Vegas enters with inconsistent recent form (WLWWL) while Edmonton shows similar volatility (WLWWW)
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers form
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers head to head
Vegas Golden Knights
17%
Edmonton Oilers
83%
May 13, 2025
Edmonton Oilers
3 : 0
Vegas Golden Knights
May 11, 2025
Edmonton Oilers
3 : 4
Vegas Golden Knights
May 9, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights
4 : 5
Edmonton Oilers
May 7, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights
2 : 4
Edmonton Oilers
Apr 2, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights
2 : 3
Edmonton Oilers
Dec 14, 2024
Edmonton Oilers
6 : 3
Vegas Golden Knights
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