The Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs head into a pivotal Game 5 on Wednesday night with their Eastern Conference second-round playoff series deadlocked at 2-2 after each team protected home ice through the first four contests.
After Toronto claimed Games 1 and 2 in high-scoring affairs, the Panthers have seized momentum with back-to-back victories, including a defensive masterclass in Game 4's 2-0 shutout win.
The series now shifts back to Scotiabank Arena where the Maple Leafs' stars, particularly Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner who have struggled against Florida, face mounting pressure to deliver in what has become a best-of-three battle for advancement.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers matchup, our predictive model gives the Panthers a 54.33% chance of defeating the Leafs.
Florida Panthers: 54.33% win probability
- Scoring efficiency (252 goals scored despite being 5th in standings)
- Superior defensive record (223 goals against compared to higher-ranked teams)
- Strong momentum with 'LLWWW' recent form, winning 3 of their last 5 games
Toronto Maple Leafs: 45.67% win probability
- Inconsistent defensive performance (231 goals against despite 2nd place standing)
- Recent form vulnerability (Though 'WWWWW' shows strong recent play, historical performance against top-5 teams has been concerning)
- Road game disadvantage (Panthers away record shows better performance against top Eastern teams than Leafs' home record against same opposition)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers odds
Here are the current odds as the Florida Panthers travel to take on the Toronto Maple Leafs in this NHL showdown set for Wednesday, May 14.
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Florida Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +120 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | -135 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) |
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers preview
The Panthers and Maple Leafs return to Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday night with their second-round playoff series deadlocked at 2-2 after Florida evened things up with a statement 2-0 shutout in Game 4.
Toronto's high-octane offense has mysteriously vanished, with Mitch Marner failing to record a single shot in the past two games while superstar Auston Matthews continues his puzzling playoff drought against Florida.
Home ice has proven decisive so far, with the host team winning all four contests in this increasingly physical Atlantic Division rivalry.
Sergei Bobrovsky silenced the Leafs with a perfect 23-save performance on Sunday, while Joseph Woll kept Toronto competitive despite facing a 37-shot barrage.
The pivotal Game 5 could hinge on special teams, with Florida converting a crucial power play goal in Game 4 while Toronto's man-advantage units went silent.
The Panthers' defensive discipline has completely transformed this series after Toronto's explosive start, setting up what should be a tense battle for control of this bitter rematch of last year's playoff meeting that Florida won 4-1.
Key stats
- 1Toronto sits 2nd in the Eastern Conference with 108 points, demonstrating elite-level consistency
- 2Toronto's offense has been electric, scoring 268 goals this season (26 more than Florida)
- 3The Maple Leafs enter on a five-game win streak (WWWWW), showing peak form
- 4Florida holds 5th position in the East with 98 points, 10 behind Toronto despite similar win totals (47 vs 52)
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers form
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers head to head
Toronto Maple Leafs
50%
Florida Panthers
50%
May 11, 2025
Florida Panthers
2 : 0
Toronto Maple Leafs
May 9, 2025
Florida Panthers
5 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
May 7, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
4 : 3
Florida Panthers
May 6, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
5 : 4
Florida Panthers
Apr 8, 2025
Florida Panthers
3 : 1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Apr 2, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 2
Florida Panthers
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