NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 05/14/2025

The home team has prevailed in all four games of this Panthers-Leafs series, setting Toronto up nicely for Game 5 at Scotiabank Arena where they're getting plus money at +120.

Multiple experts have pointed to this as a prime opportunity for Toronto's core stars to step up, with Auston Matthews notably goal-less in nine playoff games against Florida.

Goaltending remains a concern for Toronto with Stolarz still sidelined, but Joseph Woll has shown flashes despite his mixed playoff numbers (.893 save percentage).

Florida's Bobrovsky hasn't been dominant either with just an .888 save percentage in the postseason, which could open opportunities for Toronto's offensive weapons.

After dropping Games 3 and 4 in Florida, the Leafs should respond with urgency in this pivotal Game 5, and the value at +120 gives bettors a solid return on a home team that's shown they can beat the Panthers on home ice.

While the first three games of this series produced a flood of goals, Game 4 showed these teams can tighten up defensively when needed, finishing with just a 2-0 score.

The Under recommendation is backed by multiple expert sources, with one outlet highlighting that with a bump in scoring from Game 4, the total would still likely fall short of 6 goals.

Playoff intensity tends to increase as series progress, and this pivotal Game 5 should feature tighter checking and more careful defensive play from both squads.

One key factor is officiating – if refs swallow the whistles as mentioned in one analysis, we'll see fewer power plays and likely fewer goals as a result.

Both goaltenders have shown vulnerabilities, but the Panthers proved in Game 4 they can shut down Toronto's attack, while the Leafs will be focused on better defensive structure at home.

The Golden Knights have struggled offensively recently, scoring just 2.66 goals per game in their last three outings despite converting 22% of their power plays.

Edmonton's defense has been solid on the road, allowing just seven goals in their last three away games, which bodes well for the under in this matchup.

Vegas has given up 11 goals in their last three home games, but Edmonton's recent offensive output of 3.66 goals per game isn't enough to push this total over 6.5 by itself.

This wager offers the best statistical edge according to one analytics model, providing a 4.2% edge at attractive +110 odds.

While both teams have explosive offensive potential, their recent form points to a tighter, more defensive contest that should stay under the 6.5 total.

Edmonton comes in hot with three straight road wins, while Vegas has dropped three of their last four home games, creating a momentum advantage for the Oilers.

The Oilers' offense has been clicking with 10 goals in their last three road games, and their power play remains dangerous at a 23% conversion rate.

Vegas has significant defensive issues lately, surrendering 11 goals in their last three home contests, and their penalty kill ranks among the league's worst units.

Edmonton's defense has tightened up considerably, allowing just over two goals per game in recent road matchups, which should help contain Vegas' already-struggling offense.

The combination of Edmonton's road success, special teams advantage, and Vegas' defensive problems makes the Oilers moneyline a strong play, especially with the Golden Knights struggling to find their offensive rhythm at home.