The Minnesota Timberwolves look to close out their Western Conference semifinal series against the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday night at Target Center, where they enter as heavy 11.5-point favorites with Stephen Curry still sidelined by a hamstring injury.
Minnesota seized control with a dominant third-quarter performance in Game 4, riding strong offensive showings from Julius Randle (31 points) and Anthony Edwards (30 points) to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.
With the Warriors having lost three straight playoff games for the first time since the 2016 NBA Finals, Minnesota's elite defense and balanced scoring attack have them poised to advance to the conference finals.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors matchup, our predictive model gives the Wolves an 82% chance of defeating the Dubs.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 82% win probability
- Superior defensive efficiency (8962 points allowed compared to Warriors' 9060)
- Better recent form with 3 wins in last 5 games (WWWLW vs Warriors' LWLWL)
- Higher season win total with 49 wins vs 48 for Golden State
Golden State Warriors: 18% win probability
- Inconsistent road performance (Warriors finished 7th in West vs Wolves at 6th)
- Defensive vulnerability (allowed 9060 points compared to Wolves' 8962)
- Erratic recent form with alternating results (LWLWL showing inability to string together consecutive wins)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors odds
Here are the latest odds as the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Golden State Warriors in NBA action on Wednesday, May 14.
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Golden State Warriors | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -600 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) | +480 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) |
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors preview
The Warriors face a daunting elimination game at Target Center on Wednesday night, trailing 3-1 in their Western Conference Semifinal series against a Timberwolves team that has seized complete control since Stephen Curry's Game 1 hamstring injury.
Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle have emerged as Minnesota's dynamic duo, combining for 61 points in Game 4's decisive win that featured a devastating 39-17 third quarter that turned a close contest into a rout.
Golden State's offense has sputtered without Curry, managing just 102.5 points per game in the playoffs, though Jonathan Kuminga has tried valiantly to fill the void with 23 points in their last outing.
Minnesota's elite defense, allowing just 100.1 points per game in the postseason, has systematically dismantled the Warriors' attack while Rudy Gobert continues anchoring the paint with over 10 rebounds per game.
The 11.5-point spread reflects both Curry's absence and the Timberwolves' dominance in the series, where they've outscored Golden State by 35 points during the 179 minutes Curry has been sidelined.
With their backs against the wall, the Warriors must find answers for Minnesota's third-quarter surges and Edwards' star power if they hope to extend their season beyond Wednesday night.
Key stats
- 1The Timberwolves sit 6th in the Western Conference with a 49-33 record
- 2Minnesota enters with better recent form (WWWLW) than Golden State (LWLWL)
- 3Minnesota has a stronger defensive edge, allowing 8,962 points compared to Golden State's 9,060
- 4The Warriors (48-34) sit just one spot behind Minnesota in the standings despite similar records
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors form
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors head to head
Minnesota Timberwolves
17%
Golden State Warriors
83%
May 13, 2025
Golden State Warriors
110 : 117
Minnesota Timberwolves
May 11, 2025
Golden State Warriors
97 : 102
Minnesota Timberwolves
May 9, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
117 : 93
Golden State Warriors
May 7, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
88 : 99
Golden State Warriors
Jan 16, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
115 : 116
Golden State Warriors
Dec 22, 2024
Minnesota Timberwolves
103 : 113
Golden State Warriors
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