Eastern Conference leaders FC Cincinnati will look to extend their impressive record against Toronto FC, having gone unbeaten in their last seven meetings since 2022 with Cincinnati winning six of those encounters.
Pat Noonan's Cincinnati squad enters Wednesday's clash in strong form with five wins in their last six matches, spearheaded by Brazilian forward Evander who has netted nine goals this season.
Toronto FC, sitting third-worst in the Eastern Conference with just 10 points from 12 matches, will aim to build momentum following their 2-0 victory over DC United but face a significant challenge against Cincinnati's stingy defense that has conceded just 14 goals this campaign.
Toronto vs. Cincinnati prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Toronto vs Cincinnati matchup, our predictive model gives the Cincy a 63% chance of defeating the Reds.
Cincinnati: 63% win probability
- League-leading position (Currently 1st with 25 points)
- Excellent recent form (WLWWW with 4 wins in last 5 matches)
- Strong winning record (8 wins in 12 games, best in the league)
Toronto: 37% win probability
- Poor offensive output (Only 10 goals scored in 12 matches)
- Struggling for consistency (WLLWD recent form with only 1 win)
- Near bottom of the table (13th position with just 10 points from 12 games)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top MLS experts to give you a clear edge. Rather than digging through countless opinions, you can rely on our predictions to reflect the broader market sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, team data, and betting trends—then our AI assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These scores are averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability, offering a data-driven snapshot of what the smartest minds in MLS are thinking.
Toronto vs. Cincinnati odds
Here are the current odds for the MLS matchup between home side Toronto and visiting Cincinnati, set to kick off on Wednesday, May 14.
| Toronto | Cincinnati | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +190 (via Caesars Sportsbook) | +140 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | 240 ( via Caesars Sportsbook) |
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Toronto vs. Cincinnati preview
Cincinnati's dominance over Toronto FC continues to be one of MLS's most predictable storylines, with the Eastern Conference leaders unbeaten in their last seven meetings against the struggling Canadian side.
Manager Pat Noonan has transformed Cincinnati into a clinical outfit that consistently strikes first, as evidenced by Brazilian forward Evander's seventh goal of the season in their recent win over Austin FC.
Toronto, meanwhile, enters with a glimmer of hope after their convincing 2-0 victory against DC United, but they'll face a much sterner test against Cincinnati's formidable defense that has conceded just 14 goals this campaign.
The hosts will be significantly undermanned with Kerr, Osorio, Cimermancic, and Wingo all sidelined for Wednesday's clash, placing even more pressure on Federico Bernardeschi to create something special.
Argentine striker Lucas Orellano, who tormented Toronto with a brace in Cincinnati's thrilling 4-3 away win last season, looks primed to cause problems again for a defense that has struggled to find consistency.
While all three of Cincinnati's losses this season have come on the road, they'll fancy their chances of extending their impressive record at BMO Field where Toronto has failed to string together consecutive wins all season.
Key stats
- 1Cincinnati leads the MLS Eastern Conference with 25 points through 12 matches, winning 8 of their fixtures so far
- 2Toronto sits in 13th place with just 10 points from 12 matches, having won only 2 games this season
- 3Cincinnati enters with strong form (WLWWW), winning 4 of their last 5 matches
- 4Toronto has struggled defensively, conceding 16 goals while scoring only 10 goals across their 12 matches
Toronto vs. Cincinnati form
Toronto vs. Cincinnati head to head
Toronto
0%
Cincinnati
100%
Mar 9, 2025
Cincinnati
2 : 0
Toronto
May 25, 2024
Toronto
3 : 4
Cincinnati
Feb 25, 2024
Cincinnati
0 : 0
Toronto
Sep 30, 2023
Toronto
2 : 3
Cincinnati
Jun 21, 2023
Cincinnati
3 : 0
Toronto
May 4, 2022
Cincinnati
2 : 0
Toronto
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