The Carolina Hurricanes look to close out their Eastern Conference Semifinal series against the Washington Capitals on Thursday night, carrying a commanding 3-1 lead into Capital One Arena after back-to-back home victories where they outscored Washington 9-2.
While the Hurricanes have found their offensive rhythm behind Taylor Hall and Seth Jarvis while limiting opponents to just six goals in the series, the top-seeded Capitals face elimination despite having the conference's best regular-season record.
Washington Capitals vs. Carolina Hurricanes prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Washington Capitals vs Carolina Hurricanes matchup, our predictive model gives the Hurricanes a 72.33% chance of defeating the Caps.
Pre-game probabilities
Carolina Hurricanes
Moneyline
Win %
72.33%
27.67%
Washington Capitals
Carolina Hurricanes: 72.33% win probability
- Defensive prowess (Only 233 goals against, 4th best in the league)
- Superior goal differential (+33 compared to Washington's +56, despite fewer points)
- Consistent performance against top teams (47 wins puts them 4th in the Eastern Conference)
Washington Capitals: 27.67% win probability
- Recent form concerns (LWLLW shows inconsistency heading into this matchup)
- Defensive vulnerability (232 goals against is mid-tier for a conference leader)
- Historically struggles against disciplined teams like Carolina (Carolina's structured style could exploit Washington's aggressive approach)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Washington Capitals | Carolina Hurricanes | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Washington Capitals vs. Carolina Hurricanes preview
The Hurricanes are one win away from the Eastern Conference Final after seizing control with back-to-back home victories, putting the top-seeded Capitals on the brink of elimination heading into Thursday's Game 5 at Capital One Arena.
Carolina's stifling defense has been the story of the series, allowing just six total goals while Frederik Andersen has been stellar between the pipes with a .934 save percentage.
Washington's usually potent offense has gone cold at the worst possible time, with Alexander Ovechkin finding the net just once despite his 44-goal regular season.
The Hurricanes' balanced attack has overwhelmed the Capitals, with six different players scoring in their convincing 5-2 victory in Game 4.
Jack Roslovic, Taylor Hall, and Seth Jarvis have been particularly lethal for Carolina, combining for three goals and six assists in the series while creating constant pressure in the offensive zone.
The Capitals will need a desperate effort from their defensive corps led by John Carlson and Jakob Chychrun, who must find a way to slow Carolina's momentum and force a Game 6 back in Raleigh.
Washington Capitals vs. Carolina Hurricanes form
Washington Capitals vs. Carolina Hurricanes head to head
Washington Capitals
33%
Carolina Hurricanes
67%
May 12, 2025
Carolina Hurricanes
5 : 2
Washington Capitals
May 10, 2025
Carolina Hurricanes
4 : 0
Washington Capitals
May 8, 2025
Washington Capitals
3 : 1
Carolina Hurricanes
May 6, 2025
Washington Capitals
1 : 2
Carolina Hurricanes
Apr 10, 2025
Washington Capitals
5 : 4
Carolina Hurricanes
Apr 2, 2025
Carolina Hurricanes
5 : 1
Washington Capitals
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