The Dallas Stars are on the brink of advancing to the Western Conference Final for the third consecutive season as they take a commanding 3-1 series lead into Winnipeg for Game Five against the Jets.
Despite the Jets' dominant regular season performance, they've struggled offensively in this series, managing just nine goals across four games while the Stars' defense and goaltender Jake Oettinger have proven difficult to solve.
With Mikko Rantanen and Mikael Granlund leading Dallas' attack with a combined seven goals, the pressure falls on Winnipeg's stars Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele to deliver in what could be their final game of the season.
Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars matchup, our predictive model gives the Stars a 54.33% chance of defeating the Jets.
Pre-game probabilities
Dallas Stars
Moneyline
Win %
54.33%
45.67%
Winnipeg Jets
Dallas Stars: 54.33% win probability
- Offensive firepower (277 goals scored, tied for 3rd most in Western Conference)
- Strong point production (106 points in standings, 3rd in Western Conference)
- Consistent winning record (50 wins in 82 games, showing ability to close out games)
Winnipeg Jets: 45.67% win probability
- Recent inconsistency (WLWWW recent form shows vulnerability despite top standing)
- Pressure as conference leader (Teams often play their best against the #1 seed)
- Potential overconfidence (116 points vs Dallas' 106 could lead to complacency against a lower-ranked opponent)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Winnipeg Jets | Dallas Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars preview
The Dallas Stars are on the verge of advancing to their third straight Western Conference Final as they head to Canada Life Centre with a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Winnipeg Jets.
Jake Oettinger has been stellar between the pipes for Dallas, stopping 105 of 113 shots in the series while the Stars' offense has found its rhythm, pouring in 11 goals with eight coming in the last two victories.
The Jets, who dominated throughout the regular season, now face elimination on home ice where Connor Hellebuyck will need to rediscover his Vezina-caliber form after surrendering 11 goals on 95 shots in the series.
Winnipeg's offensive stars Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor have been notably quiet, combining for just two goals despite scoring 80 during the regular season.
The Stars' dynamic duo of Mikko Rantanen and Mikael Granlund has been the difference-maker with seven goals and five assists between them, while defenseman Thomas Harley has contributed at both ends with a goal and three assists.
With the tight checking that typically defines elimination games, expect a defensive battle that could come down to special teams, where Winnipeg boasts a 28.9% power play success rate but has struggled to convert against Dallas's disciplined penalty kill.
Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars form
Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars head to head
Winnipeg Jets
50%
Dallas Stars
50%
May 14, 2025
Dallas Stars
3 : 1
Winnipeg Jets
May 11, 2025
Dallas Stars
5 : 2
Winnipeg Jets
May 10, 2025
Winnipeg Jets
4 : 0
Dallas Stars
May 8, 2025
Winnipeg Jets
2 : 3
Dallas Stars
Apr 11, 2025
Dallas Stars
0 : 4
Winnipeg Jets
Mar 15, 2025
Winnipeg Jets
4 : 1
Dallas Stars
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