The Denver Nuggets face elimination at Ball Arena on Thursday night as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in a must-win Game 6 of their Western Conference semifinal series with OKC leading 3-2.
After dropping consecutive games to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the surging Thunder, the defending champions will lean heavily on Nikola Jokic, who exploded for 44 points in Game 5 but lacked sufficient support down the stretch.
With Denver's season hanging in the balance, this chess match between two evenly matched teams—who've split their nine meetings this season 5-4 in favor of OKC—now shifts back to Colorado where the desperate Nuggets hope to force a decisive Game 7.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 52% chance of defeating the Nuggets.
Pre-game probabilities
Oklahoma City Thunder
Moneyline
Win %
52%
48%
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder: 52% win probability
- League-leading record (68-14 compared to Denver's 50-32)
- Superior defensive efficiency (OKC allows 8826 points vs Denver's 9583)
- Exceptional recent form (4-1 in last 5 games with WWWWL record)
Denver Nuggets: 48% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performance (3-2 record with WWWLL pattern in last 5 games)
- Defensive vulnerability (9583 points allowed ranks 4th worst among playoff teams)
- Scoring differential disadvantage (+319 for Denver vs +1055 for OKC on the season)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Denver Nuggets | Oklahoma City Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview
The defending champion Nuggets find themselves on the ropes as they host the Thunder for Game 6, trailing 3-2 in a Western Conference semifinal series that has showcased the NBA's present versus its future.
Nikola Jokic delivered a monster 44-point performance in Game 5, but Denver still couldn't overcome Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Oklahoma City's balanced attack, with six Thunder players reaching double figures in their 112-105 victory.
Denver's interim coach David Adelman called the Game 5 loss "disappointing" and "heavy," but the Nuggets have reason for optimism at Ball Arena, where they've been formidable as home underdogs with a 10-4 record in such situations dating back to 2022.
The series has become a fascinating chess match, with Oklahoma City's adjustment-countering style helping SGA recover from his Game 3 struggles to post 56 points across the last two contests.
For Denver to force a Game 7, they'll need more offensive support for Jokic and Murray (27 points in Game 5) while cutting down on the turnovers that led to an 18-9 fastbreak point disadvantage last time out.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder form
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder head to head
Denver Nuggets
50%
Oklahoma City Thunder
50%
May 14, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
112 : 105
Denver Nuggets
May 11, 2025
Denver Nuggets
87 : 92
Oklahoma City Thunder
May 10, 2025
Denver Nuggets
113 : 104
Oklahoma City Thunder
May 8, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
149 : 106
Denver Nuggets
May 6, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
119 : 121
Denver Nuggets
Mar 11, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
127 : 140
Denver Nuggets
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