NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/16/2025

The Celtics showed remarkable resilience in Game 5, dominating the Knicks in a must-win situation despite missing Jayson Tatum. Boston's road form can't be ignored here – they were the NBA's best road team during the regular season with 35 wins and have already won at MSG once in this series.

New York faces immense pressure at home, with this being their biggest playoff game in decades. The Knicks have actually struggled at Madison Square Garden during these playoffs, losing three of their last four home games as favorites, which suggests the raucous atmosphere might be creating more pressure than advantage.

Fatigue could be a significant factor working against New York. The entire Knicks starting five ranks in the top-12 for playoff minutes played, while Boston has just one player (Derrick White) in the top-16. This workload disparity becomes increasingly important as the series extends.

Boston's defense clamped down in Game 5, holding the Knicks to a season-low 35.8% shooting. With Derrick White's offensive explosion (34 points) and unexpected bench production (40 points), the Celtics have found new scoring avenues despite Tatum's absence.

The betting trends strongly favor Boston in this spot. The Celtics have won seven straight road games against the Knicks following a home win and have covered the spread in their last six games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents following a win. All signs point to Boston at least keeping this close, if not winning outright.

The Celtics displayed classic playoff resilience in Game 5, overwhelming the Knicks without Jayson Tatum behind Derrick White's 34-point performance and an unexpected 40-point bench explosion. That momentum shouldn't be underestimated heading into Game 6, especially for a team that's proven it can win in hostile environments.

Boston's track record at Madison Square Garden speaks volumes – they've won 5 of their last 6 games there, including one victory already in this series. As the league's best road team during the regular season, the pressure of MSG won't faze this battle-tested group.

The Knicks face enormous pressure playing in front of their home crowd in what's being billed as the biggest New York basketball game in decades. This pressure, coupled with Jalen Brunson's tweaked ankle in Game 5, creates a psychological advantage for Boston as the team with nothing to lose.

Although playing without Tatum remains significant, the Celtics have remarkably gone 9-2 without him this season, including 7-1 since March. This demonstrates Boston's system strength and depth that allows them to remain competitive even without their superstar.

The moneyline offers tremendous value at +120, especially considering Boston's defensive showcase in Game 5 where they held New York to a season-low 35.8% shooting. With the Celtics finding their rhythm and the Knicks potentially pressing, taking Boston straight up provides excellent value.

Game 5 showcased Boston's defensive potential when their backs are against the wall, holding the Knicks to a season-low 35.8% shooting. This defensive intensity typically travels well in playoff road games when teams focus more on execution and controlling tempo.

Both teams are battle-tested after five grueling playoff games, and Game 6 elimination scenarios typically produce tighter, more cautious basketball. The Celtics know their best chance without Tatum is to grind out a low-scoring affair, while the Knicks will be feeling the pressure of closing out at home.

The under looks particularly attractive considering Jalen Brunson's ankle issues from Game 5. While he'll certainly play, any limitation to his explosiveness impacts the Knicks' offensive ceiling significantly. Boston's defensive gameplan will undoubtedly focus on making life difficult for New York's primary scorer.

Fatigue is becoming a major factor for the Knicks, with their entire starting five ranking in the top-12 for playoff minutes played. Tired legs often lead to missed jumpers, especially in high-pressure elimination games where each possession carries extra weight.

Looking at the series trends, defense has largely dictated success for both teams. The Celtics are allowing just 97.9 points on 43.5% shooting in the playoffs, while the Knicks have held opponents to 108.2 points. With both teams locked in defensively and feeling the gravity of the moment, expect a lower-scoring, grind-it-out affair that stays under the total.