NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 05/16/2025

The Florida Panthers have completely turned this series around, winning three straight after dropping the first two games to Toronto.

Florida's defensive play has been exceptional, with Bobrovsky nearly posting back-to-back shutouts and the team allowing just one goal in the last two games.

The Maple Leafs' stars are struggling at the worst time – Matthews can't find the net against Florida (no goals in 10 career playoff games vs the Panthers), Marner is making costly turnovers, and Nylander has cooled off significantly.

With the series now back in Florida, the Panthers have a chance to close things out at home and avoid a return trip to Toronto.

Both expert sources recommend Florida on the puck line, noting their championship pedigree and suggesting there's a good chance for an empty-netter to cover if needed.

Four of the five games in this series have gone over the total, with Games 1-3 featuring nine goals each.

Though Game 4 was a defensive battle with just two goals, the offense returned in Game 5 with Florida's explosive performance.

Toronto has hit the over in seven of their 11 playoff games this postseason, while Florida has gone over in eight of their 10 playoff contests.

The opening three games of this series were especially high-scoring, with the over hitting early in the third period of Game 1 and less than six minutes into the second period of Game 3.

With elimination pressure on Toronto, they'll likely open up their game, creating more scoring chances for both teams.

The Panthers have seized complete control of this series with three consecutive wins, outscoring Toronto 9-1 over the last two games.

Florida's defensive structure has suffocated Toronto's high-powered offense, with Sergei Bobrovsky playing at an elite level in net.

The Maple Leafs appear frustrated and disjointed, with their star players Matthews and Marner failing to produce when it matters most.

Florida has home-ice advantage for this potential series-clinching game, and they've shown championship composure in bouncing back from an 0-2 series deficit.

While the puck line offers better value, the money line provides a safer option for bettors who want to back the Panthers' momentum without sweating a one-goal victory.