The Florida Panthers look to close out their Eastern Conference second-round playoff series as they host the desperate Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 6, riding the momentum of three straight dominant victories to take a 3-2 series lead.
Florida has completely flipped the script after dropping the first two games, with Sergei Bobrovsky finding his form and the Panthers' offense exploding for 13 goals in their last three contests.
Toronto's stars face immense pressure to deliver, as Auston Matthews remains goalless in 10 career playoff games against Florida while the Maple Leafs' once-promising postseason hangs by a thread.
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: who will win?
For today's Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 57.67% chance of defeating the Panthers.
Toronto Maple Leafs: 57.67% win probability
- League-leading offense (268 goals scored, ranking 2nd in the Eastern Conference)
- Top-tier overall performance (52 wins and 108 points, 2nd in Eastern Conference)
- Red-hot recent form (WWWWW, only team in the conference with a perfect 5-game streak)
Florida Panthers: 42.33% win probability
- Inconsistent recent form (LLWWW, starting with two losses)
- Defensive vulnerability (223 goals against, more than conference-leading Capitals)
- Lower points total (98 points compared to Toronto's 108, putting them 3 spots lower in standings)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs odds
Here are the latest odds for the NHL clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the home team Florida Panthers set for Friday, May 16.
| Florida Panthers | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -240 (via bet365 US) | +200 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) |
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Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs preview
The Maple Leafs face elimination Friday night in Sunrise as they look to halt the Panthers' three-game winning streak that has completely flipped this second-round playoff series on its head.
Toronto's offensive firepower that delivered back-to-back wins to open the series has gone cold, managing just one goal in their embarrassing 6-1 home defeat Wednesday night that sent fans heading for the exits early.
Florida has seized momentum through stifling defense and timely scoring, with Sergei Bobrovsky transforming from a liability who surrendered 13 goals in the first three games to a fortress who nearly posted consecutive shutouts.
Auston Matthews' continued playoff struggles against Florida loom large—the star center remarkably remains goalless in 10 career postseason games versus the Panthers.
Joseph Woll likely gets the start in net for Toronto with Anthony Stolarz expected to remain sidelined, facing immense pressure as the Leafs attempt to force a decisive Game 7.
The Panthers, meanwhile, can smell blood in the water as they look to eliminate Toronto in the second round for the second time in three seasons, having dominated this rivalry with seven wins in their last ten playoff meetings.
Key stats
- 1Toronto holds the #2 position in the Eastern Conference with 108 points, making them one of the top teams in the league.
- 2The Maple Leafs are riding hot with a five-game winning streak (WWWWW), showing excellent current form.
- 3Florida sits 5th in the Eastern Conference with 98 points, 10 points behind Toronto in the standings.
- 4The Panthers have been inconsistent lately with a recent form of LLWWW, winning their last three after dropping two straight.
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs form
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs head to head
Florida Panthers
67%
Toronto Maple Leafs
33%
May 14, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
1 : 6
Florida Panthers
May 11, 2025
Florida Panthers
2 : 0
Toronto Maple Leafs
May 9, 2025
Florida Panthers
5 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
May 7, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
4 : 3
Florida Panthers
May 6, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
5 : 4
Florida Panthers
Apr 8, 2025
Florida Panthers
3 : 1
Toronto Maple Leafs
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