Eastern Conference leaders FC Cincinnati look to continue their impressive road form as they visit rivals Columbus Crew in this pivotal MLS clash at Lower.com Field on Saturday night.
While Columbus enters as slight betting favorites (-105) with an unbeaten home record this season, Cincinnati's defense has been rock-solid away from home, conceding just three goals in their last five road matches.
The matchup features two of the league's top scorers in Evander and Denkey (both with 9 goals), setting the stage for what could be another tight contest in the Ohio Derby.
Columbus Crew vs. Cincinnati prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Columbus Crew vs Cincinnati matchup, our predictive model gives the Cincy a 59% chance of defeating the Crew.
Cincinnati: 59% win probability
- League-leading form (28 points in 13 games puts them 1st in the standings)
- Consistent winning record (9 wins, most in the league with a 69% win rate)
- Excellent recent momentum (WWLWW form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches)
Columbus Crew: 41% win probability
- Settling for draws too often (5 draws in 13 matches, limiting their point total)
- Inconsistent recent form (DDWWL showing vulnerability with just 2 wins in last 5)
- Home field advantage not translating to wins (Only 7 wins total despite solid position in standings)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top MLS experts to give you a clear edge. Rather than digging through countless opinions, you can rely on our predictions to reflect the broader market sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, team data, and betting trends—then our AI assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These scores are averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability, offering a data-driven snapshot of what the smartest minds in MLS are thinking.
Columbus Crew vs. Cincinnati odds
Here are the latest odds for the MLS showdown between Columbus Crew and Cincinnati, as the home side welcomes their rivals to Columbus on Saturday, May 17.
| Columbus Crew | Cincinnati | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -115 (via Caesars Sportsbook) | +300 (via Caesars Sportsbook) | 290 ( via FanDuel Sportsbook) |
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Columbus Crew vs. Cincinnati preview
Cincinnati heads into Lower.com Field riding high atop the Eastern Conference standings with 28 points, but they'll face a stern test against third-placed Columbus Crew in what promises to be another heated installment of the Ohio derby.
Pat Noonan's Cincinnati side has mastered the art of grinding out results, with their last seven victories all coming by a single goal—most recently a 1-0 win at Toronto where Denkey continued his impressive form.
The Crew, meanwhile, will be eager to bounce back after consecutive draws against Montreal and Philadelphia, games where they dominated possession but couldn't convert their chances.
Columbus boasts the more prolific attack with Evander and Rossi in fine form, though Cincinnati's league-best defense has been their foundation for success, conceding just 10 goals in 13 matches.
Despite the Crew being slight favorites at -105, Cincinnati has been road warriors this season with four away victories, though all three of their season defeats have come away from TQL Stadium.
History between these Ohio rivals has produced entertaining encounters, with five of their last six meetings seeing at least three goals scored—setting the stage for what should be another compelling chapter in this fierce regional rivalry.
Key stats
- 1Cincinnati sits top of the table with 28 points from 13 matches, including 9 wins—the most in the league.
- 2Columbus Crew has lost just once in 13 games (7W-5D-1L), showing remarkable consistency despite sitting third.
- 3The Crew boast a much stronger goal difference (+8) than Cincinnati (+4), suggesting they may be the more balanced side.
- 4Cincinnati enters with excellent form (WWLWW in last 5), while Columbus has cooled slightly after a strong start (DDWWL).
Columbus Crew vs. Cincinnati form
Columbus Crew vs. Cincinnati head to head
Columbus Crew
33%
Cincinnati
67%
Sep 14, 2024
Cincinnati
0 : 0
Columbus Crew
May 11, 2024
Columbus Crew
1 : 2
Cincinnati
Dec 2, 2023
Cincinnati
2 : 2
Columbus Crew
Aug 20, 2023
Columbus Crew
3 : 0
Cincinnati
May 20, 2023
Cincinnati
3 : 2
Columbus Crew
Aug 27, 2022
Cincinnati
2 : 2
Columbus Crew
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