MLS Best Bets Today: Expert MLS Betting Picks for 05/17/2025

Toronto vs Montreal's Under 2.5 goals stands out as today's highest probability play according to advanced models, with nearly 60% likelihood to cash. Both Canadian clubs have historically played tight, defensive matches in their rivalry games, creating natural value on the under.

This bet appears in multiple expert sources with Dimers' model giving it a solid 4.8% edge at current pricing, making it one of the strongest statistical plays on today's slate. The -122 price point still offers decent value considering the underlying metrics support this outcome.

While Toronto has offensive weapons, Montreal's tactical approach on the road typically focuses on defensive solidity first, aiming to frustrate the home side. This stylistic clash tends to produce methodical, low-scoring affairs.

The model confidence is particularly noteworthy since it's rare to see under 2.5 goals priced this favorably in MLS, where high-scoring games are common. The Canadian derby element adds another layer of caution to the teams' approaches.

Weather conditions and the early afternoon start time (2:30PM ET) may further contribute to a measured pace, as neither side will want to expend unnecessary energy in what promises to be a physical, hard-fought contest.

The defending MLS Cup champions Columbus Crew present strong value as a moneyline favorite against rival Cincinnati at -118 odds. Crew's consistent form and tactical discipline under their current system make them a reliable option despite playing away from home.

Multiple analytics models point to Columbus having a legitimate edge in this matchup, with Dimers' data suggesting a 57% probability of the Crew taking all three points. Their technical midfield control typically translates well in rivalry matches where possession becomes crucial.

Cincinnati has struggled to find consistency this season, while Columbus continues to build on their championship pedigree with a well-established playing style. The rivalry factor often brings out the best in veteran-laden teams like the Crew.

The price point is particularly attractive given Columbus's track record in this fixture. At just -118, there's solid value considering a draw pays significantly more, yet the data suggests Columbus should be a heavier favorite based on current form.

This Hell is Real derby always delivers intensity, but Columbus's experience in high-leverage situations gives them a mental edge that statistics alone don't capture. Their tactical flexibility allows them to adapt to Cincinnati's approach regardless of how the match unfolds.

Charlotte represents one of the day's best value opportunities as a road favorite against Chicago Fire at attractive +105 odds. Despite being the away team, Charlotte's current form and matchup advantages make them a compelling choice that analytics models strongly support.

Multiple expert sources highlight this as a high-value play, with Dimers' model assigning it a substantial 7.1% edge – the highest of any top pick today. This edge calculation considers Chicago's recent defensive vulnerabilities and Charlotte's improving road performance.

Chicago Fire has struggled to maintain defensive consistency this season, particularly against teams who press efficiently in transition. Charlotte's counter-attacking style is precisely the approach that has troubled the Fire throughout their recent matches.

The +105 price offers significant value considering Charlotte would typically be priced closer to -110 in this matchup based on recent performances alone. The plus-money opportunity creates an excellent risk-reward proposition for bettors.

While road wins are never guaranteed in MLS, Charlotte's tactical approach travels well, and Chicago's home field advantage has been diminished this season with inconsistent performances at Soldier Field. The underlying metrics suggest Charlotte should be favored despite being the visitors.