The Canadian derby between CF Montreal and Toronto FC at Saputo Stadium promises fireworks as both sides desperately seek to regain winning form in MLS action.
Montreal enters with mixed recent results (DLDLWD), while Toronto has struggled this season with only ten points collected despite their talented roster featuring Lorenzo Insigne.
With multiple injury concerns for both squads and a history of high-scoring affairs in their recent head-to-head matchups (averaging 3.5 goals per game), fans should expect an entertaining, goals-filled encounter this Saturday.
Montreal vs. Toronto prediction: who will win?
For today's Montreal vs Toronto matchup, our predictive model gives the Impact a 70% chance of defeating the Reds.
Montreal: 70% win probability
- Home field advantage (Montreal has had 4 draws at home this season, showing they're tough to beat on their turf)
- Recent improvement in form (Montreal secured a draw in their last match, showing signs of stabilization)
- Head-to-head motivation (Canadian rivalry gives Montreal extra incentive in this bottom-of-table clash)
Toronto: 30% win probability
- Poor away form (Toronto has struggled on the road with only 2 wins in 13 matches overall)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (17 goals conceded, showing consistent backline issues)
- Scoring drought (Only 10 goals scored in 13 matches, second-worst in the Eastern Conference)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top MLS experts to give you a clear edge. Rather than digging through countless opinions, you can rely on our predictions to reflect the broader market sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, team data, and betting trends—then our AI assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These scores are averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability, offering a data-driven snapshot of what the smartest minds in MLS are thinking.
Montreal vs. Toronto odds
Here are the latest odds for the MLS matchup between home team Montreal and Toronto, set to kick off on Saturday, May 17.
| Montreal | Toronto | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -105 (via Caesars Sportsbook) | +280 (via Caesars Sportsbook) | 270 ( via bet365 US) |
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Montreal vs. Toronto preview
The Canadian derby returns to Saputo Stadium where CF Montreal and Toronto FC reignite one of MLS's fiercest rivalries in what promises to be an explosive encounter.
Montreal enter the contest with mixed recent form, including a 1-1 draw against Columbus Crew where Luca Petrasso found the net, but remain slight favorites despite missing several key players through injury.
Toronto FC are desperate to jumpstart their sluggish season, having collected just ten points so far and coming off a disappointing loss to FC Cincinnati.
Both squads will need to navigate significant injury concerns, with Montreal missing Campbell, Duke, Synchuk, and Yankov, while Toronto's woes are compounded by the absences of Osorio, Wingo, Laryea, Gomis, and Kerr.
Montreal boss Marco Donadel is expected to deploy a 4-4-2 formation anchored by Jonathan Sirois between the posts, while Robin Fraser's Toronto side will likely counter with a 3-5-2 featuring the attacking talents of Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi.
Recent head-to-head history has slightly favored Montreal with three wins from their last six meetings, generating an eye-catching average of 3.5 goals per game – suggesting fans could be in for another goal-filled derby clash.
Key stats
- 1Montreal sits at the bottom of the standings with just 7 points from 13 matches, winning only once this season
- 2Toronto ranks 14th with 10 points, having won only 2 of their 13 matches played
- 3Both teams struggle defensively, with Montreal conceding 17 goals and Toronto allowing the same number
- 4Montreal enters on poor form (DWLLD) while Toronto shows slightly better recent results (LWLLW) with two wins in their last five matches
Montreal vs. Toronto form
Montreal vs. Toronto head to head
Montreal
67%
Toronto
33%
Jul 20, 2024
Montreal
0 : 1
Toronto
May 18, 2024
Toronto
5 : 1
Montreal
Aug 20, 2023
Toronto
2 : 3
Montreal
May 13, 2023
Montreal
2 : 0
Toronto
Sep 4, 2022
Toronto
3 : 4
Montreal
Jul 16, 2022
Montreal
1 : 0
Toronto
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