The Dallas Stars have a golden opportunity to close out their series at home against the Winnipeg Jets tonight, with the home team heavily favored after dominating road games throughout the series.
Connor Hellebuyck has been unbeatable at home with two shutouts but has surrendered a staggering 24 goals in five road playoff games, making the Stars moneyline (-155) our top recommendation.
Our expert analysis points to defensive dominance continuing to define this series, suggesting value on the under 5.5 as both goaltenders have shown the ability to steal games.
NHL best bets
| Game | Time | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:00 PM | Dallas Stars Moneyline (-150)|Under 5.5 Goals (-110)|Dallas Stars 1P ML (-120) |
Stars vs. Jets
Saturday, May 17
8:00 PM
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
The Stars have dominated this series at home with Winnipeg going 0-5 on the road this postseason, making Dallas a strong play to close out the series tonight.
Connor Hellebuyck has been a completely different goaltender away from Winnipeg, surrendering a concerning 24 goals in just five road playoff starts.
The Jets offense has also struggled significantly on the road, being outscored 25-8 across those five playoff road games.
Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger brings a solid .916 save percentage and 2.60 GAA in the postseason, suggesting he's due for a bounce-back performance after the Game 5 shutout loss.
The Stars defensive unit featuring Thomas Harley, Esa Lindell, and Miro Heiskanen has been effective at creating turnovers and limiting quality chances throughout the series.
Both defenses have controlled this series, with the Jets allowing only 11 goals and the Stars conceding just 13 goals across five games.
The Stars have tightened up recently, allowing only seven goals in the last three games, indicating a trend toward lower-scoring affairs.
Connor Hellebuyck has shown he can completely shut down Dallas when he's on his game, posting two shutouts already in this series.
Jake Oettinger has been consistent with a strong .916 save percentage in the playoffs and should rebound after being shut out in Game 5.
The defensive units for both teams have excelled at creating turnovers and limiting quality shots, making this an ideal spot for the under to hit in a potential series-deciding game.
The Stars will be looking to set the tone early at home where they've dominated this series and avoid a Game 7 situation.
Winnipeg has struggled significantly on the road in the playoffs, falling behind early in most of their away games during this postseason run.
Dallas coach Pete DeBoer will have his team prepared to start fast, knowing that building an early lead against Hellebuyck is crucial to playoff success.
The Stars' top line featuring Mikko Rantanen and Mikael Granlund has been effective at generating early chances and should continue that trend tonight.
With the home crowd behind them and momentum on their side, expect Dallas to come out flying in the opening period and secure an early advantage.
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