The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder prepare for an epic Game 7 showdown at Paycom Center, with a trip to the Western Conference Finals hanging in the balance.
Nikola Jokic's Nuggets forced this decisive game with a gutsy 119-107 win in Game 6, but now face a Thunder squad that boasts a dominant 4-1 home playoff record and the potential league MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
With Aaron Gordon's hamstring injury casting a shadow over Denver's chances and the Thunder looking to advance to their first conference finals since 2016, this winner-take-all battle promises to deliver championship-level intensity.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets matchup, our predictive model gives the Nuggets a 60% chance of defeating the Thunder.
Pre-game probabilities
Oklahoma City Thunder
Moneyline
Win %
40%
60%
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder: 40% win probability
- Recent form concerns (lost their most recent game after 4 straight wins)
- Defensive vulnerabilities against high-scoring teams (Denver's offensive firepower could exploit this)
- Potential playoff pressure affecting young core (despite impressive 68-14 regular season record)
Denver Nuggets: 60% win probability
- Exceptional offensive production (9902 points scored, highest in Western Conference)
- Strong recent momentum (3-2 in last 5 games despite two recent losses)
- Playoff-tested roster (50-32 record shows championship pedigree)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Denver Nuggets | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets preview
The defending champion Nuggets and top-seeded Thunder face a dramatic Game 7 showdown in Oklahoma City on Sunday, with the winner advancing to the Western Conference Finals.
Denver forced this decisive game with a gutsy 119-107 home victory in Game 6, where Nikola Jokic dominated with 29 points and 14 rebounds while a visibly ill Jamal Murray contributed 25 points.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been phenomenal for Oklahoma City, pouring in 32 points in the last contest, but he'll need more help from Jalen Williams, who shot a dismal 3-for-16 in Game 6.
The Thunder's homecourt advantage at Paycom Center could prove decisive, though Denver has covered in four of the last five meetings between these evenly matched squads.
Health concerns loom large for the Nuggets with Aaron Gordon nursing a hamstring injury, while the Thunder—in their first Game 7 since 2020—will rely on their league-best defense to contain Denver's efficient offense.
With rebounds and turnovers telling the story throughout this series, this winner-take-all battle could hinge on Denver's ability to control the glass against a Thunder team that's forced the Nuggets into 16+ turnovers in nearly every game.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets form
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