The Western Conference Finals get underway Tuesday night as Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves head to Paycom Center to face Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.
Both teams have looked dominant at times during their playoff runs, with Minnesota dispatching the Warriors in five games and Oklahoma City coming off an impressive Game 7 blowout over the defending champion Nuggets.
With the Thunder's league-best defense meeting the Timberwolves' red-hot offense, Game 1 sets the stage for what promises to be a competitive series between two franchises seeking their first NBA Finals appearance in this era.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 64.25% chance of defeating the Wolves.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 64.25% win probability
- League-leading record (68-14, best in Western Conference)
- Dominant point differential (+1055, averaging +12.9 per game)
- Exceptional recent form (WWWWL, winning 4 of last 5 games)
Minnesota Timberwolves: 35.75% win probability
- Significant win gap compared to OKC (49-33, 19 fewer wins)
- Road team disadvantage against Western Conference leader
- Inconsistent defensive performance (allowed 8962 points, 136 more than OKC)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves odds
Here are the current odds for the NBA showdown between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Oklahoma City Thunder, who host this crucial matchup on Tuesday, May 20.
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Minnesota Timberwolves | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -300 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | +260 (via BetMGM Sportsbook) |
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves preview
The Western Conference Finals tip off Tuesday night as Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves head to Oklahoma City looking to steal home court advantage from a Thunder squad fresh off their emotional Game 7 demolition of Denver.
Both defensive powerhouses have been playoff juggernauts – Minnesota having lost just twice while dispatching the Lakers and Warriors, while OKC flexed their championship credentials by eventually overcoming the defending champion Nuggets.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 35-point masterclass in Game 7 highlighted why he's the Thunder's heartbeat, though he'll face a stern test against a Timberwolves defense allowing just 101.1 points per game this postseason.
The season series finished deadlocked at 2-2, with three games decided by eight points or fewer, including Minnesota's overtime thriller in OKC back in February.
Julius Randle has been a revelation for the Wolves, averaging 23.9 points alongside Edwards' 26.5, while the Thunder will counter with Williams and Holmgren supporting SGA's offensive brilliance.
Thunder coach Mark Daigneault will need his supporting cast to step up after their inconsistent shooting against Denver, particularly with Minnesota enjoying the advantage of extra rest following their five-game dismissal of Golden State.
Key stats
- 1Oklahoma City Thunder sit atop the Western Conference with 68 wins, making them clear favorites against the sixth-place Timberwolves
- 2The Thunder have won their last 4 of 5 games (WWWWL), while Minnesota shows inconsistency with a WWWLW recent form
- 3OKC holds a significant defensive edge, allowing just 8,826 points against compared to Minnesota's 8,962
- 4Thunder boast the best point differential in the West at +1,055, while Minnesota's differential is more modest at +410
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves form
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves head to head
Oklahoma City Thunder
33%
Minnesota Timberwolves
67%
Feb 25, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
128 : 131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Feb 24, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
123 : 130
Oklahoma City Thunder
Feb 14, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
116 : 101
Oklahoma City Thunder
Jan 1, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
113 : 105
Minnesota Timberwolves
Jan 30, 2024
Oklahoma City Thunder
101 : 107
Minnesota Timberwolves
Jan 21, 2024
Minnesota Timberwolves
97 : 102
Oklahoma City Thunder
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