NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/21/2025

The Knicks enter the Eastern Conference Finals with tremendous momentum after their impressive upset over the top-seeded Celtics. Jalen Brunson has been nothing short of exceptional, averaging 28.8 points and 7.7 assists throughout the playoffs while showing he can carry this team in crucial moments.

Madison Square Garden provides a significant home-court advantage for the Knicks, evidenced by the fact that the home team has won 11 of the last 12 playoff meetings between these franchises. New York's defensive intensity, particularly on their home floor, should help contain Indiana's high-powered offense that's shooting over 50% from the field in the playoffs.

The Pacers have struggled historically in this situation, losing 13 of their last 14 Eastern Conference Finals road games following a win. Despite Indiana's impressive offensive numbers (117.7 PPG), the Knicks' more methodical pace should control the tempo and prevent the Pacers from getting into their preferred run-and-gun style.

Karl-Anthony Towns gives New York a significant advantage in the frontcourt, averaging nearly a double-double with 19.8 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. His ability to score both inside and outside creates matchup problems for Indiana's defense.

While the Pacers deserve credit for dispatching the Bucks and Cavaliers in impressive fashion, the Knicks present a different challenge with their physical defense and playoff-tested roster. New York's ability to win close games and make key adjustments should prove valuable in this series opener.

The playoff intensity typically leads to tighter defensive efforts, particularly in series openers where teams are still feeling each other out. The Knicks have been playing at a significantly slower pace in the playoffs, averaging just 106.8 points per game while focusing on halfcourt execution.

New York's defensive identity under Tom Thibodeau becomes even more pronounced in the playoffs. They've managed to hold the high-powered Celtics offense in check during their second-round upset, and should apply similar pressure to Indiana's shooters.

While the Pacers want to push tempo and have averaged 117.7 points in the playoffs, the Knicks excel at controlling pace and forcing opponents to play their style of basketball. New York ranks among the slowest-paced teams in the NBA, which naturally suppresses scoring.

The Eastern Conference Finals stage typically brings heightened pressure and more cautious play in Game 1. Both coaches will likely implement conservative game plans early, focusing on limiting mistakes rather than taking offensive risks.

Historical playoff trends support this under play, as conference finals games often feature lower scoring than earlier rounds due to better defensive preparation and the increased stakes. With the Knicks determined to make this a halfcourt battle, expect a more measured, defensive contest.

Brunson has been the offensive focal point for the Knicks throughout the playoffs, averaging 28.8 points per game. He's taken his game to another level when it matters most, and there's no reason to expect that to change in the Conference Finals.

The Pacers' perimeter defense has been their weak point all season, and Brunson's ability to create separation off the dribble and hit mid-range jumpers matches up perfectly against Indiana's defensive vulnerabilities. His craftiness should allow him to find scoring opportunities consistently.

In high-leverage playoff games, stars tend to dominate the ball more, and Brunson has embraced being New York's primary creator. With the electric Madison Square Garden crowd behind him for this series opener, expect an aggressive approach from the Knicks' leader.

Brunson has shown remarkable consistency in the playoffs, rarely having off nights when the Knicks need him most. His scoring has been particularly important at home, where the Knicks feed off the crowd's energy.

The Pacers will likely focus defensive attention on containing Karl-Anthony Towns inside, potentially creating more opportunities for Brunson to attack one-on-one matchups on the perimeter. His playoff experience and clutch performance history suggest he'll rise to the occasion in this critical Game 1.