Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals tips off tonight with the Thunder looking to take a commanding 2-0 lead after their dominant second-half performance in Game 1.
The Timberwolves face critical adjustments after shooting a woeful 29% from three and attempting 51 threes, while experts debate whether Minnesota's road resilience will emerge against an Oklahoma City team that's 60-31-4 against the spread this season.
Our analysis breaks down the key betting angles, including why the OVER 214.5 might be the smartest play despite the 6-point drop from Game 1's total.
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Thunder vs. Timberwolves betting tips
The total has dropped 6 points compared to Game 1, creating value on the over as Minnesota looks to completely revamp their offensive approach.
In Game 1, the Timberwolves shot an unsustainable 51 three-pointers, converting just 15, which likely won't happen again as they adjust their strategy to attack the paint more.
The Over has cashed in 11 of 16 meetings at Paycom Center, showing a strong historical trend for high-scoring games when these teams meet in Oklahoma City.
Both teams have offensive firepower with Minnesota averaging 106.4 points and Oklahoma City putting up 116.8 points per game in these playoffs.
After a second-half explosion where OKC outscored Minnesota 70-40, the Thunder have shown they can score in bunches, while the Wolves will likely shoot better than their 29% from three in Game 1.
Minnesota looked strong through the first half of Game 1 before collapsing, suggesting they have the ability to keep this game competitive with proper adjustments.
The Timberwolves have covered the spread in each of their last six games as road underdogs following a loss, showing they typically bounce back well from defeats.
Minnesota's poor three-point shooting (29% in Game 1) is likely to improve, as players like Reid and DiVincenzo are historically much better shooters than they showed in the series opener.
The Wolves haven't lost consecutive games since mid-March, displaying resilience and an ability to make game-to-game adjustments throughout this playoff run.
Anthony Edwards will likely be more aggressive attacking the rim after attempting just one layup/dunk in Game 1, which should lead to more efficient offense and a closer game.
Randle was Minnesota's only bright spot in Game 1, scoring 28 points on efficient 9-for-13 shooting including 5 three-pointers.
He accounted for a third of the Timberwolves' made three-pointers, showing he has a favorable matchup against the Thunder's defense.
With Minnesota likely to adjust their offense after taking too many threes in Game 1, Randle's versatility to score both inside and outside makes him a key beneficiary of any strategic changes.
Oklahoma City's defensive focus will likely remain on containing Anthony Edwards, potentially creating more opportunities for Randle to exploit mismatches.
His recent form and confident shooting stroke suggest Randle will continue to be an offensive focal point as Minnesota tries to even the series.
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