The Indiana Pacers stunned the New York Knicks with a historic comeback in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, erasing a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit to steal home-court advantage with a 138-135 overtime victory.
Now the shell-shocked Knicks, who became the first team in 994 tries to lose after leading by 14+ points with under three minutes remaining, must regroup quickly to avoid falling into a disastrous 0-2 hole before the series shifts to Indiana.
Friday night's Game 2 showdown at Madison Square Garden sets up as a mental test for Jalen Brunson's Knicks against Tyrese Haliburton's high-scoring Pacers, who have now won nine of eleven playoff games while averaging over 117 points per contest.
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers matchup, our predictive model gives the Pacers a 56.33% chance of defeating the Knicks.
Pre-game probabilities

Indiana Pacers
Moneyline
Win %
56.33%
43.67%

New York Knicks
Indiana Pacers: 56.33% win probability
- Superior offensive production (9624 points scored this season, ranking 4th in scoring)
- Strong recent form (WLWWW, winning 4 of their last 5 games)
- Balanced performance (50-32 record, identical to the Knicks but with better scoring differential)
New York Knicks: 43.67% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performance (WLLLW, losing 3 of their last 5 games)
- Less efficient offense (9494 points scored vs Indiana's 9624)
- Home court advantage not translating to win probability (despite home advantage, model favors Indiana by 12.66%)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
New York Knicks | Indiana Pacers | |
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Moneyline |
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New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers preview
The New York Knicks face a must-win situation in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals after suffering a historic collapse in the series opener, where they became the first playoff team in 26 years to lose after leading by 14+ points with under three minutes remaining.
Tyrese Haliburton (31 points, 11 assists) and Aaron Nesmith's scorching 8-for-9 performance from beyond the arc helped the Pacers overcome a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit to steal home-court advantage with a stunning 138-135 overtime victory.
Despite Jalen Brunson's 43-point masterclass and Karl-Anthony Towns' 35-point, 12-rebound effort, the Knicks' perimeter defense faltered down the stretch, allowing Indiana to continue their explosive offensive showing that has now produced at least 114 points in all 11 playoff games.
The Pacers' disciplined play (just seven turnovers to New York's 15) and superior ball movement have made them a legitimate threat to take a commanding 2-0 lead back to Indianapolis.
Tom Thibodeau's squad, now a concerning 3-4 at Madison Square Garden this postseason, must find answers for Indiana's three-point shooting while protecting the basketball better if they hope to avoid the daunting prospect of an 0-2 series deficit.
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers form


New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers head to head

New York Knicks
17%

Indiana Pacers
83%
May 22, 2025
New York Knicks
135 : 138
Indiana Pacers
Feb 12, 2025
Indiana Pacers
115 : 128
New York Knicks
Nov 10, 2024
Indiana Pacers
132 : 121
New York Knicks
Oct 25, 2024
New York Knicks
123 : 98
Indiana Pacers
May 19, 2024
New York Knicks
109 : 130
Indiana Pacers
May 18, 2024
Indiana Pacers
116 : 103
New York Knicks
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