NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/23/2025

The Pacers have been nothing short of dominant on the road this postseason, winning five straight away games while remaining nearly perfect overall with just two losses. Their offensive firepower has been the engine behind this success, leading all playoff teams in points per game and shooting an impressive 40.6% from beyond the arc.

Game 1 exposed a significant depth advantage for Indiana, with their bench outscoring New York's 31-17. This factor becomes increasingly important following an overtime game, as Thibodeau's notorious tight rotation puts tremendous strain on his starters. The Knicks haven't lost consecutive games since early April, but the circumstances here are unique.

The historic collapse in Game 1 (teams were previously 970-0 when leading by 14+ points with under 2:50 left) could have psychological implications for New York. Meanwhile, Indiana has excelled as underdogs, going 6-1 straight up as underdogs since April 27 and an impressive 9-3 when getting 5+ points since December.

Indiana's superior assist-to-turnover ratio (best this postseason) and their third-ranked pace should continue to challenge the Knicks' fatigued starters. New York committed 8 more turnovers in Game 1, a trend that could persist as tired legs affect decision-making.

The Knicks will likely make adjustments, but Indiana's road confidence, depth advantage, and perimeter shooting make them dangerous. Getting 6 points with a team that's undefeated on the road this postseason and just took Game 1 at MSG provides significant value.

The Pacers bring the NBA playoffs' most potent offense to the table, averaging 119.5 points while shooting an efficient 50.2% from the field. Their perimeter game has been particularly lethal, connecting at a 40.6% clip from beyond the arc throughout the postseason.

Game 1 demonstrated both teams' offensive capabilities, with the contest requiring overtime to decide a winner. The Pacers' up-tempo style (ranked third in pace this postseason) creates more possessions and scoring opportunities, naturally pushing totals higher.

Indiana's bench production provides consistent scoring even when starters rest, as evidenced by their 31 bench points in Game 1. This depth ensures offensive output remains high throughout all four quarters.

While not explicitly mentioned in the expert picks, the matchup dynamics suggest a high-scoring affair. The Knicks will be desperate to even the series, potentially leading to an aggressive offensive approach, while the Pacers have shown they'll continue pushing pace regardless of game situation.

The combination of Indiana's floor-spacing (making 4 more three-pointers than the Knicks in Game 1), New York's desperation at home, and the established pace favors the over in what should be another exciting, high-scoring Eastern Conference Finals contest.

The Pacers have been an offensive juggernaut throughout the playoffs, averaging 119.5 points per game on highly efficient shooting splits (50.2% FG, 40.6% 3PT). This offensive firepower has been consistent regardless of venue, as demonstrated by their perfect road record this postseason.

Indiana's offensive approach creates advantages against New York's defense. Their superior three-point shooting (40.6% vs Knicks' 35.5%) forces defenders to cover more ground, opening driving lanes and creating mismatches that lead to high-percentage looks.

The Pacers' depth is a key factor in maintaining offensive production. With a fresh rotation of players cycling in, they can maintain their up-tempo offense (ranked third in pace) for all 48 minutes, wearing down the Knicks' more limited rotation.

Game 1 showed Indiana can score effectively at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks' defense. Their ball movement and assist-to-turnover ratio (best in the playoffs) create quality looks throughout the game, even against a defensive-minded team.

While the Knicks may make defensive adjustments, the Pacers' multiple scoring options (Haliburton, Siakam, Turner, plus bench production) make them difficult to contain for an entire game. Their consistent offensive production throughout the playoffs suggests they'll exceed their team total again in Game 2.