The Oklahoma City Thunder look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead as they head to the Target Center for Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday night.
After dominating the first two games behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's stellar play, including a 38-point performance in Game 2, the Thunder have Minnesota's backs against the wall in what has become a must-win situation for the home team.
The Timberwolves will need Anthony Edwards to continue his scoring touch while hoping for bounce-back performances from struggling stars Julius Randle and Mike Conley to avoid falling into an almost insurmountable 0-3 hole.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 50.5% chance of defeating the Wolves.
Pre-game probabilities
Oklahoma City Thunder
Moneyline
Win %
50.5%
49.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves
Oklahoma City Thunder: 50.5% win probability
- League-best 68-14 record (Best in the Western Conference)
- Elite defensive efficiency (8826 points allowed, fewest in the Western Conference)
- Outstanding recent form (4-1 in last 5 games with WWWWL record)
Minnesota Timberwolves: 49.5% win probability
- Inconsistent scoring output (9372 points scored ranks middle of the pack in Western Conference)
- Lower win percentage (49-33 record translates to 59.8% win rate compared to Thunder's 82.9%)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (8962 points allowed, while solid, is worse than OKC's league-leading defense)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Oklahoma City Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview
The Thunder have seized complete control of the Western Conference Finals, taking a commanding 2-0 lead after dismantling Minnesota in Oklahoma City with back-to-back double-digit victories.
NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been unstoppable, dropping 38 points in Game 2 while the Thunder's swarming defense has forced 33 Timberwolves turnovers through two games.
Now the series shifts to Target Center, where Minnesota—desperately needing to defend home court—hopes the friendly confines can spark a resurgence from Julius Randle, who shot a dismal 2-for-11 last game.
While Anthony Edwards delivered 32 points in Game 2, the Timberwolves' supporting cast has disappeared against Oklahoma City's relentless defensive pressure, connecting on just 28.9% from beyond the arc in the series.
The Thunder's balanced attack, featuring Jalen Williams (26 points, 10 rebounds in Game 2) and Chet Holmgren's rim protection, has overwhelmed Minnesota at both ends of the floor.
With their season effectively on the line, the Timberwolves must find answers quickly or risk falling into an insurmountable 3-0 hole against a Thunder team that looks every bit like a championship contender.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder form
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder head to head
Minnesota Timberwolves
50%
Oklahoma City Thunder
50%
May 23, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
118 : 103
Minnesota Timberwolves
May 21, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
114 : 88
Minnesota Timberwolves
Feb 25, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
128 : 131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Feb 24, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
123 : 130
Oklahoma City Thunder
Feb 14, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
116 : 101
Oklahoma City Thunder
Jan 1, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
113 : 105
Minnesota Timberwolves
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