The Oklahoma City Thunder look to rebound from their shocking 143-101 blowout loss as they face the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals at Target Center on Monday night.
With OKC holding a 2-1 series lead, all eyes will be on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's response after being held to just 14 points in Game 3, well below his playoff average of 28.7 PPG.
The Timberwolves, energized by Anthony Edwards' 30-point explosion and their red-hot 50% three-point shooting in Game 3, aim to even the series and reclaim momentum in what has become a compelling battle between the West's elite.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 55.67% chance of defeating the Wolves.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 55.67% win probability
- League-leading record (68-14 overall, best in the Western Conference)
- Elite defensive efficiency (allowing just 107.6 points per game, among the best in the NBA)
- Exceptional recent form (won 4 of their last 5 games with a WWWWL record)
Minnesota Timberwolves: 44.33% win probability
- Middling offensive production (114.3 PPG ranks 10th among Western Conference teams)
- Inconsistent home court advantage (home record significantly weaker than OKC's road record)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (109.3 points allowed per game, which OKC's efficient offense can exploit)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder odds
Here are the latest odds for the NBA showdown between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves, who host this crucial matchup at home on Monday, May 26.
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Oklahoma City Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +130 (via bet365 US) | -144 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) |
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview
The Western Conference Finals shifts to a critical Game 4 at Target Center, where Minnesota looks to build on their emphatic 143-101 blowout win that narrowed Oklahoma City's series lead to 2-1.
Anthony Edwards was simply unstoppable in Game 3, pouring in 30 points on 70.6% shooting while the Timberwolves connected on a blistering 20-of-40 from three-point range.
The Thunder's high-powered offense went cold last outing, with MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander held to just 14 points on 4-of-13 shooting – well below his playoff average of 28.7 points.
Minnesota's first-quarter dominance (34-14) set the tone early, but the Thunder boast an impressive 32-8 road record this season and have consistently bounced back strong after losses.
Target Center should be electric as the Wolves aim to even the series, while Oklahoma City will look to regain their defensive identity after allowing their highest point total of the season.
Watch for a potential scoring duel between Edwards and Gilgeous-Alexander, with the latter surely motivated to reassert himself after an uncharacteristically quiet performance.
Key stats
- 1The Thunder are the Western Conference's top team with 68 wins, 19 more than the Timberwolves
- 2Minnesota sits 6th in the Western Conference with a 49-33 record, just missing the 50-win mark
- 3OKC enters with strong momentum on a 4-1 run in their last five games (WWWWL) compared to Minnesota's 3-2 record (WWWLW)
- 4The Thunder have the West's best point differential, scoring 9,881 points while allowing just 8,826 (+1,055) versus Minnesota's more modest +410 differential
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder form
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder head to head
Minnesota Timberwolves
67%
Oklahoma City Thunder
33%
May 25, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
143 : 101
Oklahoma City Thunder
May 23, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
118 : 103
Minnesota Timberwolves
May 21, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
114 : 88
Minnesota Timberwolves
Feb 25, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
128 : 131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Feb 24, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
123 : 130
Oklahoma City Thunder
Feb 14, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
116 : 101
Oklahoma City Thunder
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