The Edmonton Oilers aim to seize a commanding 3-1 series lead in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals after dominating the Dallas Stars with a 6-1 rout in Game 3 at Rogers Place.
Connor McDavid's two-goal performance in the last matchup showcased Edmonton's offensive firepower, while Dallas struggles to find answers on the road where they've gone a concerning 2-5 this postseason.
The Stars face a pivotal moment Tuesday night, needing to overcome their road woes and Edmonton's surging momentum to avoid heading back to Dallas with their season on the brink.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars matchup, our predictive model gives the Oilers a 72.67% chance of defeating the Stars.
Pre-game probabilities
Edmonton Oilers
Moneyline
Win %
72.67%
27.33%
Dallas Stars
Edmonton Oilers: 72.67% win probability
- Powerful offense (277 goals scored, tied for 3rd most in Western Conference)
- Strong home ice advantage (48 wins overall, 6th in Western Conference)
- Positive momentum (WLWWW recent form showing consistency)
Dallas Stars: 27.33% win probability
- Struggling recent form (LLLLL in last five games showing significant slump)
- Defensive vulnerability on the road (224 goals against this season)
- Momentum issues (5 consecutive losses heading into this crucial matchup)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Edmonton Oilers | Dallas Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars preview
The Oilers have seized control of the Western Conference Finals, riding back-to-back dominant performances to take a 2-1 series lead against a Dallas Stars team that suddenly finds itself searching for answers.
After dropping Game 1 despite controlling much of the play, Edmonton has responded with a clinical 3-0 road win in Game 2 followed by Sunday's emphatic 6-1 drubbing where Connor McDavid's two-goal performance highlighted just how dangerous the Oilers' attack can be when firing on all cylinders.
Dallas, now a concerning 2-5 on the road this postseason and outscored by 18 goals in those contests, faces the daunting task of solving Stuart Skinner, who turned away 33 shots in Game 3 and has seemingly found his playoff form at the perfect time.
The Stars' power play, which fueled their third-period comeback in Game 1 with three man-advantage goals, has gone silent since then – a troubling development for a team that's been blanked three times already in their seven playoff road games.
Edmonton's supporting cast has elevated alongside their stars, with Zach Hyman netting two goals in Game 3 and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins collecting three assists, demonstrating the depth that makes the Oilers such a formidable playoff opponent.
With the pivotal Game 4 set for Rogers Place, Dallas desperately needs Jake Oettinger to rediscover his elite form and generate more offense to avoid heading home in a 3-1 hole against a surging Oilers team that seems to be peaking at exactly the right moment.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars form
Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars head to head
Edmonton Oilers
50%
Dallas Stars
50%
May 25, 2025
Edmonton Oilers
6 : 1
Dallas Stars
May 24, 2025
Dallas Stars
0 : 3
Edmonton Oilers
May 22, 2025
Dallas Stars
6 : 3
Edmonton Oilers
Mar 27, 2025
Edmonton Oilers
3 : 4
Dallas Stars
Mar 9, 2025
Edmonton Oilers
5 : 4
Dallas Stars
Oct 19, 2024
Dallas Stars
4 : 1
Edmonton Oilers
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