NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/28/2025

The Thunder and Timberwolves have shown they can light up the scoreboard, combining for 254 points in regulation during Game 4. Oklahoma City has scored 114+ points in three of the four games this series, showcasing their offensive firepower.

OKC leads all remaining playoff teams in pace, setting up another fast-paced contest. They're also leading these playoffs in points off turnovers, generating 25 in Game 4 alone, which creates easy transition opportunities.

Minnesota struggled scoring in Games 1 and 2 on the road but has since averaged 134.5 points over their last two games. Anthony Edwards was held to just 16 points in Game 4 but hasn't been held under 20 in consecutive games this postseason.

Both teams have been shooting efficiently from beyond the arc, making at least 37% of their three-point attempts. The Thunder's defensive standards slipped in Game 4, allowing 41 points in the fourth quarter alone.

With the Thunder looking to close out the series at home and the Timberwolves fighting for survival, we can expect aggressive offensive approaches from both sides. The matchup dynamics and recent scoring trends strongly support the over.

The Thunder have dominated at home this postseason, winning seven of their eight games at Paycom Center. More impressively, they're 6-2 against the spread when laying 7 or more points in these playoffs, showing they can handle big numbers.

Oklahoma City thoroughly controlled Games 1 and 2 at home against Minnesota, covering the spread with ease in both contests. The Thunder's offensive execution has been excellent, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander coming off a 40-point triple-double performance in Game 4.

Minnesota squandered their opportunity to tie the series at home, and now face the daunting task of extending their season on the road. The Timberwolves' 23 turnovers in Game 4 played right into OKC's hands, leading to easy transition points.

The Thunder have an impressive 21-10-2 ATS record in their last 33 home games as favorites of 7 or more points. Their offensive firepower combined with Minnesota's turnover issues creates a significant advantage for the home team.

With Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren both playing at a high level alongside SGA, the Thunder have too many weapons for Minnesota to contain. This closing game should see OKC pull away as they look to secure their NBA Finals berth.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a masterful 40-point performance in Game 4, showing he's ready to lead the Thunder to the NBA Finals. As the clear alpha for Oklahoma City, SGA tends to elevate his game in crucial closeout opportunities.

The Thunder star has been remarkably consistent this postseason, and with a chance to clinch the series at home, expect him to be aggressive from the opening tip. Minnesota's defense has struggled to contain him throughout the series.

When examining closing games, SGA typically increases his shot attempts and scoring output. With the home crowd behind him and the finals berth on the line, he'll likely look to put his stamp on this game early and often.

The Timberwolves will be desperate, potentially leading to defensive gambles that could create favorable matchups and free throw opportunities for Gilgeous-Alexander. He's been excellent at drawing fouls throughout the playoffs.

While not explicitly mentioned in the articles, this player prop represents strong value based on SGA's recent form (40 points in Game 4) and his leadership role in closeout scenarios. His combination of mid-range excellence, rim attacks, and free throw proficiency makes this a solid bet.