The Oklahoma City Thunder look to clinch their first NBA Finals berth since 2012 as they host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, carrying a commanding 3-1 series lead after a nail-biting 128-126 victory in Game 4.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues his playoff dominance after dropping 40 points with a near triple-double in the last contest, while the Timberwolves desperately need Anthony Edwards to shake off his quiet Game 4 performance if they hope to extend the series.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 85% chance of defeating the Wolves.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 85% win probability
- League-leading record (68-14, best in Western Conference)
- Elite defensive efficiency (allowing only 107.6 points per game)
- Outstanding recent form (WWWWL, winning 4 of last 5 games)
Minnesota Timberwolves: 15% win probability
- Significant win gap compared to OKC (49-33 vs 68-14)
- Middling offensive production (114.3 PPG, 6th in West)
- Road game disadvantage against the top seed (OKC has the best home record in the West)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves odds
Here are the latest odds for the NBA matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Oklahoma City Thunder, who host this Western Conference showdown on Wednesday, May 28.
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Minnesota Timberwolves | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -340 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) | +290 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) |
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder stand on the brink of advancing to the NBA Finals as they return home to Paycom Center with a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals.
After escaping with a nail-biting 128-126 victory in Game 4, OKC's dynamic duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams has proven nearly unstoppable, combining for 74 points in their last outing.
Minnesota's hopes hinge on Anthony Edwards bouncing back from a subdued 16-point performance, while role players like Nickeil Alexander-Walker (23 points in Game 4) need to maintain their unexpected production.
The Timberwolves' turnover issues loom large as they coughed up 23 possessions last game, essentially gift-wrapping crucial opportunities for an already lethal Thunder offense.
Having dominated Games 1 and 2 at home, the Thunder look poised to close out the series in front of their raucous Oklahoma City faithful, but Minnesota's resilience and ability to push the pace in the fourth quarter (41 points in Game 4) gives them a fighting chance.
Key stats
- 1Thunder sit atop the Western Conference with a dominant 68-14 record, showing championship-level form
- 2Minnesota holds the 6th seed with a 49-33 record and is riding momentum with a WWWLW recent form
- 3OKC has the West's best defensive record, allowing just 8,826 points across the season
- 4The offensive firepower difference is significant: Thunder scored 9,881 points this season compared to Minnesota's 9,372
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves form
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves head to head
Oklahoma City Thunder
50%
Minnesota Timberwolves
50%
May 27, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
126 : 128
Oklahoma City Thunder
May 25, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
143 : 101
Oklahoma City Thunder
May 23, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
118 : 103
Minnesota Timberwolves
May 21, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
114 : 88
Minnesota Timberwolves
Feb 25, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
128 : 131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Feb 24, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves
123 : 130
Oklahoma City Thunder
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