The New York Knicks face elimination at Madison Square Garden as they host the Indiana Pacers in a must-win Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Thursday night.
With Indiana holding a commanding 3-1 series lead after Tyrese Haliburton's triple-double performance powered their 130-121 victory in Game 4, the Knicks will need significantly improved defensive effort to extend their season.
New York enters as 4.5-point home favorites despite dropping both previous games at MSG in this series, setting the stage for what could be a season-defining showdown for Jalen Brunson and company.
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers matchup, our predictive model gives the Knicks a 58.25% chance of defeating the Pacers.
Pre-game probabilities
New York Knicks
Moneyline
Win %
58.25%
41.75%
Indiana Pacers
New York Knicks: 58.25% win probability
- Superior season record (51-31 compared to Pacers' 50-32)
- Strong defensive efficiency (held opponents to 9158 points vs Pacers' 9441)
- Home court advantage with better positioning in Eastern Conference standings (3rd vs 4th)
Indiana Pacers: 41.75% win probability
- Defensive vulnerability (allowed 9441 points, ranking them 20th in defense)
- Recent inconsistency (3-2 in last 5 games with alternating results)
- Road performance issues (as the away team against a higher-ranked opponent)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| New York Knicks | Indiana Pacers | |
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| Moneyline |
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New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers preview
The Knicks face elimination on their home floor Thursday night as they trail the surging Pacers 3-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals despite having home-court advantage in the series.
Indiana's dynamic offense, led by Tyrese Haliburton's triple-double masterclass (32 points, 12 rebounds, 15 assists) in Game 4, has overwhelmed New York's normally stout defense, putting Tom Thibodeau's squad on the brink.
After allowing the Pacers to explode for 43 first-quarter points last game, the Knicks must rediscover their defensive identity that helped them hold Indiana to just 100 points in their lone series victory.
While Jalen Brunson continues his stellar playoff run, averaging 26 points per game, New York needs more consistent production from their supporting cast, particularly Josh Hart who fouled out with just 12 points in Game 4.
The Madison Square Garden faithful will need to bring playoff-level intensity as the Knicks aim to become just the 14th team in NBA history to overcome a 3-1 series deficit.
Key for New York will be limiting turnovers after committing 17 in Game 4 that led to 20 Pacers points, while Pascal Siakam's continued efficiency (30 points on 11-of-21 shooting last game) remains a matchup problem for the Knicks' defense.
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers form
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers head to head
New York Knicks
33%
Indiana Pacers
67%
May 28, 2025
Indiana Pacers
130 : 121
New York Knicks
May 26, 2025
Indiana Pacers
100 : 106
New York Knicks
May 24, 2025
New York Knicks
109 : 114
Indiana Pacers
May 22, 2025
New York Knicks
135 : 138
Indiana Pacers
Feb 12, 2025
Indiana Pacers
115 : 128
New York Knicks
Nov 10, 2024
Indiana Pacers
132 : 121
New York Knicks
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