NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/29/2025

The Knicks have their backs against the wall down 3-1 in the series, but they've shown resilience all season in bounce-back spots. They're 5-1 ATS in their last six home games following a loss, suggesting they respond well to adversity at Madison Square Garden.

New York suffered from another slow start in Game 4, allowing 43 first-quarter points that put them in catch-up mode all night. Expect Tom Thibodeau to make defensive adjustments to prevent Indiana from getting into their offensive rhythm early.

The Pacers have been riding hot shooting from Tyrese Haliburton (32 points with a triple-double in Game 4) and surprise bench production from Bennedict Mathurin (20 points). This level of efficiency will be difficult to maintain on the road in an elimination game.

Karl-Anthony Towns is questionable but likely to play through his injury, while the Pacers are monitoring Aaron Nesmith who remains questionable. The Knicks' depth has been tested this series, but MSG should provide the energy boost they need in this must-win scenario.

The desperation factor can't be overlooked here. New York knows their season ends with a loss, while Indiana has the safety net of Games 6 and 7. The Knicks' defense allowed their worst performance of the playoffs in Game 4 – expect that to change dramatically as they fight to extend their season.

With elimination on the line, expect the Knicks to dramatically tighten their defense after allowing 130 points in Game 4. New York ranks 3rd in the league for opponent steals per game at 7.0, which should create disruption against Indiana's high-powered offense.

The pressure of a closeout game typically leads to more deliberate possessions and tighter defense. The Knicks will likely slow the pace to prevent the Pacers from getting into transition, where they've been deadly throughout the series.

Indiana ranks 29th in offensive rebounds (9.2 per game), limiting their second-chance opportunities. Against a Knicks team that will be desperate to control the tempo, this weakness could result in many one-and-done possessions for the Pacers.

The Knicks rank 27th in three-point attempts per game (34.1), preferring to work through Brunson's mid-range game and Towns in the post. This methodical approach should help keep the score lower than the shootout we saw in Game 4.

While the Pacers rank 2nd in fourth-quarter scoring (29.3 points), elimination games often see tighter finishes with deliberate possessions and free throws. The game may stay under despite a potentially frantic fourth quarter if the Knicks can establish their preferred tempo early.

Haliburton is coming off his best game of the series, posting a monster triple-double with 32 points, 12 rebounds, and 15 assists in Game 4. He's found his rhythm at the perfect time and is playing with tremendous confidence.

As the primary ball-handler for Indiana's league-leading offense, Haliburton will have the ball in his hands during crucial possessions. The Pacers will continue looking to push the pace, creating transition opportunities where Haliburton thrives.

The Knicks' defensive focus will likely shift toward containing Pascal Siakam (30 points in Game 4) and limiting Bennedict Mathurin's surprising bench production. This could create more scoring chances for Haliburton, especially from beyond the arc.

With the chance to clinch a Finals berth, Haliburton knows this is his moment to shine. Star players typically elevate their game in closeout opportunities, and Haliburton has shown he's ready for the big stage.

Even if the Knicks tighten their defense, Haliburton's versatility allows him to score in multiple ways – through pick-and-roll, spot-up threes, and in transition. His expanded offensive role makes the over a strong play despite the elimination-game environment.