The Edmonton Oilers stand just one win away from reaching the Stanley Cup Finals for the second consecutive season as they face the Dallas Stars in a pivotal Game 5 showdown at American Airlines Center on Thursday night.
Riding a three-game winning streak and powered by Connor McDavid's playoff-leading 24 points, Edmonton looks to close out a Stars team desperate to extend their season after being outscored 13-4 during their current slide.
Dallas will need Jake Oettinger to regain his form and their struggling offense to solve Stuart Skinner if they hope to force the Western Conference Finals back to Edmonton.
Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers prediction: who will win?
For today's Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers matchup, our predictive model gives the Oilers a 54% chance of defeating the Stars.
Pre-game probabilities
Dallas Stars
Moneyline
Win %
46%
54%
Edmonton Oilers
Dallas Stars: 46% win probability
- Recent collapse (0-5-0 in last five games with LLLLL recent form)
- Defensive inconsistency (224 goals against, 33 more than conference-leading Jets)
- Home advantage neutralized (Recent form suggests venue advantage is minimal)
Edmonton Oilers: 54% win probability
- Explosive offense (277 goals scored, tied for 3rd best in Western Conference)
- Strong momentum (3-1-1 in last 5 games with WLWWW recent form)
- Road resilience (Competitive 48-29-5 record suggests strong away performance)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts.
Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
| Dallas Stars | Edmonton Oilers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers preview
The Edmonton Oilers stand on the precipice of a second straight Stanley Cup Finals appearance as they take a commanding 3-1 series lead into Dallas for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals on Thursday night.
Connor McDavid continues his playoff masterclass with 24 points (5 goals, 19 assists), spearheading an Oilers offense that has found its rhythm with 13 goals across their three consecutive victories.
The Stars, who impressively dispatched top-seeded Winnipeg last round, now find themselves in desperate territory after managing just two goals in their last three contests against Edmonton's suddenly stingy defense.
Jake Oettinger (9-8, 2.72 GAA) and the Dallas penalty kill will need to rediscover their regular-season form that saw them rank sixth in goals against, having surrendered 16 goals in their last four outings.
Special teams could prove decisive at American Airlines Center, with both squads converting over 22% of their power play opportunities throughout the playoffs.
The home crowd will hope for a lifeline, but Edmonton's balanced attack and Stuart Skinner's steady netminding (.910 save percentage) have the Oilers looking increasingly like Western Conference champions.
Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers form
Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers head to head
Dallas Stars
33%
Edmonton Oilers
67%
May 28, 2025
Edmonton Oilers
4 : 1
Dallas Stars
May 25, 2025
Edmonton Oilers
6 : 1
Dallas Stars
May 24, 2025
Dallas Stars
0 : 3
Edmonton Oilers
May 22, 2025
Dallas Stars
6 : 3
Edmonton Oilers
Mar 27, 2025
Edmonton Oilers
3 : 4
Dallas Stars
Mar 9, 2025
Edmonton Oilers
5 : 4
Dallas Stars
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