The NBA Finals kicks off with a clash of contrasting styles as the dominant Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) host the upstart Indiana Pacers (50-32) at Paycom Center on Thursday night.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder enter as heavy 10-point favorites after dismantling Minnesota in five games, while Pascal Siakam and the offensive-minded Pacers aim to pull off what would be a stunning upset on the road.
Oklahoma City's league-leading defense (107.6 PPG allowed) faces its toughest test against Indiana's high-powered offense (117.4 PPG), setting up a fascinating strategic battle in Game 1.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 53.5% chance of defeating the Pacers.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 53.5% win probability
- League-leading win record (68-14, best in both conferences)
- Elite defensive efficiency (allowing only 107.6 points per game, one of the lowest in the league)
- Strong home-court momentum (current form showing 4 wins in last 5 games - WWWWL)
Indiana Pacers: 46.5% win probability
- Defensive vulnerabilities (9441 goals against, significantly higher than OKC's 8826)
- Middle-of-the-pack road record (as a 4th seed with 50-32 overall, they've struggled away from home)
- Inconsistent scoring against top defensive teams (averaging 117.4 PPG but likely to drop against OKC's elite defense)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Indiana Pacers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers preview
The stage is finally set for what promises to be an electrifying NBA Finals showdown as the dominant Oklahoma City Thunder host the surging Indiana Pacers in Game 1 at Paycom Center on Thursday night.
After dismantling Minnesota 124-94 to clinch their Finals berth in just five games, the Thunder bring their league-best 68-14 record and stifling defense that allows a mere 107.6 points per game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues his ascent to superstardom, coming off a masterful 34-point performance against the Timberwolves where he shot 56% from the field while adding 8 assists.
The Pacers, despite entering as 10-point underdogs, bring their own offensive firepower led by Pascal Siakam, who torched the Knicks for 31 points in their Eastern Conference-clinching victory.
Indiana's seventh-ranked offense (117.4 PPG) will face its toughest test against Oklahoma City's top-ranked defense in field goal percentage allowed.
With both teams excelling in different facets—OKC's defensive dominance versus Indiana's elite ball movement (3rd in NBA assists)—this clash of contrasting styles sets up a compelling chess match to open the championship series.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers form
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers head to head
Oklahoma City Thunder
50%
Indiana Pacers
50%
Mar 30, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
132 : 111
Indiana Pacers
Dec 27, 2024
Indiana Pacers
114 : 120
Oklahoma City Thunder
Apr 5, 2024
Indiana Pacers
126 : 112
Oklahoma City Thunder
Mar 13, 2024
Oklahoma City Thunder
111 : 121
Indiana Pacers
Jul 12, 2023
Indiana Pacers
87 : 98
Oklahoma City Thunder
Mar 31, 2023
Indiana Pacers
121 : 117
Oklahoma City Thunder
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