The Indiana Pacers shocked the basketball world by stealing Game 1 of the NBA Finals with a narrow 111-110 victory and now look to take a commanding 2-0 lead against the heavily favored Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday at Paycom Center.
Despite entering as 11-point underdogs, Indiana's balanced attack led by Pascal Siakam's double-double (19 points, 10 rebounds) proved enough to overcome Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 38-point performance in the series opener.
The Thunder, who haven't lost consecutive games since early April, find themselves in unfamiliar territory as they attempt to avoid a disastrous 0-2 hole against a Pacers squad that's won seven of their last eight road games.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers prediction: who will win?
For today's Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 64.67% chance of defeating the Pacers.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 64.67% win probability
- League-leading record (68-14, best in the West)
- Elite defense (8826 points allowed, 2nd best in the NBA)
- Outstanding home court advantage (recent form: WWWWL)
Indiana Pacers: 35.33% win probability
- Defensive vulnerabilities (9441 points allowed, 16th in the league)
- Significant gap in win percentage (50-32 vs OKC's 68-14)
- Challenging road matchup against the West's top team (OKC has 18 more wins on the season)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Indiana Pacers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers preview
The Pacers stunned Oklahoma City with a 111-110 victory in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, setting up a crucial Game 2 showdown at Paycom Center where the Thunder find themselves in unfamiliar territory as a team that hasn't dropped consecutive games since early April.
Pascal Siakam's double-double (19 points, 10 rebounds) helped Indiana overcome 19 first-half turnovers in the opener, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 38-point performance wasn't enough to prevent the Thunder from falling behind in the series.
Oklahoma City's league-best defense, which held opponents to just 43.6% shooting during the regular season, struggled against Indiana's potent offense that knocked down 18 three-pointers at a 46.2% clip in Game 1.
The Thunder enter as 11-point favorites despite the series deficit, though the resilient Pacers have remarkably won outright as double-digit underdogs three times since late December.
Indiana will continue missing valuable rotation piece Jarace Walker (ankle) for this contest, while the Thunder remain without rookie Nikola Topic (knee).
With the Pacers having won all three Game 2s in these playoffs and the Thunder desperate to avoid an 0-2 hole before heading to Indianapolis, Sunday's matchup sets up as a potential series-defining clash.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers form
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers head to head
Oklahoma City Thunder
50%
Indiana Pacers
50%
Jun 6, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
110 : 111
Indiana Pacers
Mar 30, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
132 : 111
Indiana Pacers
Dec 27, 2024
Indiana Pacers
114 : 120
Oklahoma City Thunder
Apr 5, 2024
Indiana Pacers
126 : 112
Oklahoma City Thunder
Mar 13, 2024
Oklahoma City Thunder
111 : 121
Indiana Pacers
Jul 12, 2023
Indiana Pacers
87 : 98
Oklahoma City Thunder
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