The Oklahoma City Thunder face a pivotal Game 4 against the Indiana Pacers on Friday night at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, looking to avoid a 3-1 series deficit after dropping Game 3 by a score of 116-107.
Despite their dominant 68-14 regular season record, the Thunder have struggled on the road this postseason, going 0-8 against the spread in away games while the Pacers have won nine of their last twelve playoff games as underdogs.
With Indiana's bench providing crucial scoring—including Bennedict Mathurin's 27-point performance off the pine in Game 3—and the Pacers outscoring Oklahoma City by 27 points in fourth quarters this series, this matchup represents a critical juncture for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder to regain momentum.
Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder matchup, our predictive model gives the Pacers a 63.5% chance of defeating the Thunder.
Indiana Pacers: 63.5% win probability
- Strong offensive production (9624 points scored this season, 4th highest in the league)
- Excellent recent form (WLWWW with 4 wins in last 5 games showing momentum)
- Home court advantage with consistent scoring (117.4 points per game average)
Oklahoma City Thunder: 36.5% win probability
- Recent decline in form (WWWWL showing potential fatigue after strong season)
- Road performance regression (despite strong overall record)
- Defensive vulnerability against high-scoring teams (Indiana's offensive output matches well against OKC's defensive approach)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Indiana Pacers | Oklahoma City Thunder | |
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| Moneyline |
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Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview
The Pacers have seized momentum in the NBA Finals with a stunning 2-1 series lead against the heavily favored Thunder, setting up a pivotal Game 4 showdown at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday night.
Indiana's fourth-quarter dominance has been the storyline of this series, as they've outscored Oklahoma City by a staggering 27 points in the final frame across the first three games.
Bennedict Mathurin's explosive 27-point performance off the bench in Game 3 highlighted Indiana's depth advantage, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder continue to struggle with late-game execution.
The Thunder, who didn't lose consecutive games between April 6 and the start of these Finals, find themselves in unfamiliar territory as they try to avoid a 3-1 deficit that would require them to win three straight.
History favors the home team in this situation, as the Pacers are a perfect 3-0 in Game 4s this postseason and have gone 10-4 in their last 14 home games as underdogs.
With Jarace Walker still questionable with an ankle injury, Indiana will look to leverage their league-best three-point shooting (39.8%) against a Thunder defense that's been elite all season but has shown cracks in their road performances.
Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder form
Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder head to head
Indiana Pacers
50%
Oklahoma City Thunder
50%
Jun 12, 2025
Indiana Pacers
116 : 107
Oklahoma City Thunder
Jun 9, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
123 : 107
Indiana Pacers
Jun 6, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
110 : 111
Indiana Pacers
Mar 30, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
132 : 111
Indiana Pacers
Dec 27, 2024
Indiana Pacers
114 : 120
Oklahoma City Thunder
Apr 5, 2024
Indiana Pacers
126 : 112
Oklahoma City Thunder
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