NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 06/16/2025

Oklahoma City has been dominant in first quarters at home all season, ranking 2nd in the NBA in 1Q net rating during the regular season.

The Thunder are showing an impressive +8.7 scoring margin in first quarters during home playoff games, establishing early control behind their raucous crowd.

Indiana continues to struggle with slow starts, ranking in the bottom-5 for first quarter point differential this postseason, making them vulnerable early.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's playoff scoring average of 28.4 PPG and his ability to control tempo early provides additional confidence in OKC's first quarter performance.

While the Pacers have shown resilience with multiple second-half comebacks, their pattern of falling behind early makes the Thunder's first quarter line more appealing than the full-game spread.

Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28.4 points per game in these playoffs, and appears to be finding his rhythm against Indiana's defensive schemes.

As the series returns to Oklahoma City for a pivotal Game 5, SGA typically elevates his scoring at home where the Thunder's offense flows more efficiently.

The Pacers have struggled to contain elite guards throughout the postseason, and SGA's mid-range game creates consistent scoring opportunities regardless of defensive adjustments.

With the series tied 2-2, expect the Thunder to lean heavily on their superstar in this crucial game, likely increasing his usage rate and shot attempts.

SGA has demonstrated an ability to get to the free throw line consistently in this series, providing an additional scoring avenue to help him clear this total.

Oklahoma City's offense performs at a higher level at home, where they feed off the Paycom Center's energy and typically push the pace more aggressively.

The Thunder's offensive rating improves significantly at home compared to road games during these playoffs, suggesting they'll put up points in this pivotal Game 5.

Indiana's defensive intensity has wavered throughout the series, particularly when facing Oklahoma City's early offensive barrages at home.

With the series tied 2-2, expect the Thunder to employ a more aggressive offensive game plan rather than a conservative approach.

Oklahoma City's balanced scoring attack with multiple contributors beyond SGA gives them various ways to generate offense against Indiana's inconsistent defense.