With the NBA Finals deadlocked at 2-2, the Oklahoma City Thunder look to capitalize on regained home-court advantage as they host the Indiana Pacers in a pivotal Game 5 at Paycom Center.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 35-point performance in Game 4 has swung momentum back to the Western Conference champions, who enter as 9-point favorites despite Pascal Siakam's consistent production for Indiana.
The Thunder's league-leading defense will aim to continue frustrating the Pacers' normally efficient offense that struggled from beyond the arc in their recent loss.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers prediction: who will win?
For today's Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 53.5% chance of defeating the Pacers.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 53.5% win probability
- League-leading record (68-14, best in the Western Conference)
- Elite defensive efficiency (8826 points allowed, fewest in the Western Conference)
- Dominant recent form (WWWWL, winning 4 of their last 5 games)
Indiana Pacers: 46.5% win probability
- Road disadvantage against the West's top seed (50-32 overall vs OKC's 68-14)
- Defensive vulnerability (9441 points allowed, significantly more than OKC's 8826)
- Statistical mismatch in point differential (+183 for Pacers vs +1055 for Thunder)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Indiana Pacers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers preview
The NBA Finals hangs in the balance as the Thunder and Pacers head into a pivotal Game 5 at Paycom Center with the series deadlocked at 2-2 after Oklahoma City snatched back home court advantage with a gritty 111-104 win in Indiana.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be the Thunder's offensive engine, coming off a masterful 35-point performance on 50% shooting that showcased why he's become one of the league's elite closers.
While Oklahoma City's league-best defense has largely contained Indiana's high-octane offense, Pascal Siakam's 20-point, 8-rebound effort in Game 4 suggests the Pacers still have offensive weapons to deploy.
The nine-point spread reflects the Thunder's dominant 68-14 season record and their suffocating defense that ranks first in field goal percentage allowed.
Free throw shooting could prove decisive in Game 5, with Oklahoma City converting an impressive 89.5% from the line in Game 4 compared to Indiana's 75.8%.
With the Thunder forcing turnovers at a rate of 17 per game and the Pacers struggling with ball security (13.2 turnovers per contest), Oklahoma City's ability to generate extra possessions could be the difference in this championship-defining matchup.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers form
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers head to head
Oklahoma City Thunder
67%
Indiana Pacers
33%
Jun 14, 2025
Indiana Pacers
104 : 111
Oklahoma City Thunder
Jun 12, 2025
Indiana Pacers
116 : 107
Oklahoma City Thunder
Jun 9, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
123 : 107
Indiana Pacers
Jun 6, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
110 : 111
Indiana Pacers
Mar 30, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
132 : 111
Indiana Pacers
Dec 27, 2024
Indiana Pacers
114 : 120
Oklahoma City Thunder
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